The Atlanta Braves have won the NL East in each of the last three seasons. Can they make it four in a row in 2021?
Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. The following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Atlanta Braves.
Opti-me: Braves fans have to chuckle when the Mets, Nats, Marlins, and Phillies all talk about how much better they’re going to be this season. Hey guys, we’re the three-time division champions, you have to get past us first, and we haven’t gone anywhere.
Talent wins games, and nobody has more of it than the Braves. Freddie Freeman is the NL MVP, he’s still just 31 and he’s a sure bet for 30 homers and 100 RBIs. Ronald Acuna is probably the best young player in baseball. Sorry Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr., but it’s true. He’s got power, speed, mad defensive skills and once he jacks his batting average – which will happen this season – he’ll be an MVP contender.
We’ve re-signed Marcell Ozuna, who found himself last season and is only 30 this year. Ozuna was never a fit in St. Louis but he’s a solid .300 hitter with league-leading home run power.
Pessi-me: Talent does win games … if it’s pitching talent. Nobody questions Atlanta’s ability to score runs. Preventing them is another issue. The Braves were mid-pack in ERA and runs allowed per game in 2020. Mid-pack isn’t good enough.
Atlanta’s big problem is keeping its arms healthy. The Braves went into 2020 with a rotation that included Mike Foltyniewicz, Mike Soroka, and Sean Newcomb, and got a total of eight starts and zero wins out of the lot of them.
Now you’ve deep-sixed Foltyniewicz altogether, Newcomb looks like a good bet for Triple A, and Soroka’s in rehab. Instead, you’re counting on Drew Smyly, who hasn’t been good since 2017, and Charlie Morton, who’s 37. A lot of teams would like to take their cracks at your rotation.
Opti-me: How do they feel about facing Max Fried? He may be the best left-hander in the game today, a 7-0 record in 2020 with a 2.25 ERA. Fried only gave up as many as three runs in a game once last season, and he hasn’t lost since mid-September of 2019.
After Fried they get Ian Anderson, a major find once Soroka, Newcomb, and Foltyniewicz went down. He had a 1.95 ERA in a half dozen starts, allowing just one earned run per game. Soroka will be back, and when he does that top three combined with the offense will provide plenty of cushion if Morton and Smyly aren’t what the Atlanta Braves expect them to be.
Pessi-me: You’ve also got to figure out that bullpen. Mark Melancon saved 11 games in 2020, but he’s off to San Diego on free agency. I suppose you’re going back to Luke Jackson because he was your 2019 closer. But Jackson was just god-awful in 2020, a 6.84 ERA and nearly two baserunners per inning.
But then what other options do the Braves have? A.J. Minter? He’s a career 1.4 WHIP guy, not exactly intimidating late-inning material. Tyler Matzek? Zero career saves. Huascar Ynoa? Sure, turn the team’s entire late-inning future over to a kid with 25 big league innings and a 7.30 ERA.
Opti-me: If closer is your team’s big worry, that team is in great shape. Besides, the Braves can pile up enough runs to end most games before a closer’s even needed. In 2020 Atlanta was second in runs per game (5.80), second in batting average (.268), and first in OPS (.832).
We’ve already talked about Freeman, Acuna, and Ozuna. But it doesn’t stop there. Dansby Swanson found his offensive groove in 2020, and since he’ll just be 27 this season more improvement is likely. The same for Ozzie Albies, an established four-year veteran still just 24.
But the big surprise will probably be Cristian Pache, who’s getting a shot in center field. A lot of people see him as a Rookie of the Year candidate.
Pessi-me: Those people haven’t been watching spring games. Pache may get the start in center because you have no other immediate options. But last time I looked he was hitting under .100 in Florida, not exactly the way for a rookie to build either his own or his team’s confidence in him.
In fact, it’s making Ender Inciarte look good by comparison.
I also want to say a word about Atlanta’s catching. Given that he hit .321 in 2020, I understand the team’s love affair with Travis d’Arnaud. But really, the guy’s a 32-year-old career .250 stick with sub-par power. By June you’re likely to be leaning hard on William Contreras, and hoping he turns into his brother, Willson.
Opti-me: One must admire your commitment to seeing the worst even in an obviously strong post-season contender. Need I remind you that last October the Atlanta Braves missed out on reaching the World Series by the margin of one run.
They’ll score that run and plenty more in 2021. And having reached the World Series six months from now, they’ll do what that 2020 team would have done…win it.
Pessi-me: Let’s check back on that if your pitching ever heals. For now, you might want to get Soroka back, hope for the best from Anderson, Newcomb, Smyly, and Bryse Wilson, and try not to wear out Fried.
There isn’t enough offense in all the world to keep this team in the NL East fight if those arms don’t come through.