Houston Astros hope to have enough for World Series run

An aging Houston Astros team hopes to take another run at the World Series, but do they have enough?

Spring training is a time when a fan’s mood can swing back and forth between boundless hope and deep despair. The following is a debate between the optimistic me and the pessimistic me regarding the 2021 Houston Astros.

Opti-me: Not many teams could withstand the loss of an ace like Justin Verlander, but the Astros can. By signing Jake Odorizzi early in March, Houston now is reliably six-deep in the rotation, something not many teams can say.

It’s also a nice mix of youth and experience. Odorizzi, Zack Greinke, and Lance McCullers have the foreknowledge, while Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez have the raw stuff.

The experts all say you’ll need six starters coming off last season’s 60-game season. Of all the AL West teams, the Astros are best-positioned to handle 162 games on the mound.

Pessi-me: First off, welcome, Astros fans, to your worst nightmare: A season with fans. Fans with lungs…and pent-up anger issues. You got a Covid-reprieve in 2020, but that ain’t happening this summer.

You’ll get a taste of it right out of the gate when you hit Oakland opening day. You’ll be in Dodger Stadium in early August, and those fans have a few things to say, as well. Heck, they may even visit Anaheim to greet you. And I have it on good authority that the rest of the league isn’t too warm to the Houston Astros after all the sign-stealing business, either.

As for your supposed vaunted pitching staff, check the spring results. Odorizzi, Valdez, and Urquidy have all been terrible, and Javier’s barely gotten into a game. So once Greinke pitches, that great staff of yours has a lot to prove.

Opti-me: As the spurned actress once said, I don’t mind being hated, but I will not be ignored. Let the fans howl all they want, that just spurs guys like Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve. I could even argue they missed that fan stimulation – positive or negative – more than any other team last season.

Bregman lost 54 points off his batting average in 2020, and Altuve lost nearly 80 points. Yuli Gurriel lost 66 points. These guys thrive off fan stimulation, and it doesn’t matter whether it’s positive or negative.

Beyond that, Texas is maybe the most liberal state in terms of letting fans back. In Houston, that means up to 50 percent capacity starting out, probably going to 100 percent by mid-season. The three West Coast divisional opponents are starting out at 20 percent of capacity, and odds are they won’t open that number up nearly as fast as Houston does.

Pessi-me: You are assuming all the performance declines last season were related to no fans. Why? Maybe the players just fell off.

There is a word for your 2020 numbers, both pitching and hitting. That word is average. The Astros didn’t rank higher than seventh in the AL in any of the major production or run-prevention numbers.

And what did Astros management do to remedy that situation? They let statistically their best hitter head off to Toronto, or more precisely to Dunedin. You’ll miss George Springer and his .899 OPS at the top of your lineup. Altuve and Bregman will really miss him, since they’ll have fewer RBI opportunities.

Opti-me: Springer won’t be missed once Myles Straw and Kyle Tucker get settled full-time into their outfield positions. Those guys are next-gen stars.

Tucker showed it in 2020 with nine homers and 42 RBIs. Over 162 games, that’s 25 bombs and 117 RBIs. And that’s at age 23. Don’t be surprised if he out-produces Springer in average, homers, and RBIs this season.

Straw only got limited chances, but when he saw regular duty in 2019 he hit .270, so he’s proven capable.

The Astros also have Yordan Alvarez coming back to regular duty. A knee injury and Covid made 2020 basically a wasted season for him. But this guy was Rookie of the Year in 2019, when he hit .313 with 27 bombs. News flash: he’s healthy again.

Pessi-me: The Astros have another big problem: they’re getting old. Your catcher, Martin Maldonado, is 34. He’s never hit much and he sure isn’t going to start now. Gurriel is 37, Michael Brantley is 34, and Greinke is 37.

As good as Greinke has been, his ERA+ fell off 44 points in 2020. He went 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA and only made it into the seventh inning once. Let’s be honest: He’s just an average pitcher today.

Without Verlander, if you get even normal age-related performance declines from Greinke, Gurriel, and Brantley, it’s all downhill to third place.

Opti-me: Tucker and Straw are poised to blossom in 2021. So are Valdez, Javier and Urquidy. They’ve all basically been on the sidelines just waiting for a chance, and this is it. Bregman, Correa, and Altuve are already in their primes. Plus, as you so ineloquently pointed out a few paragraphs ago, they have the motivation to vindicate themselves in front of fans.

The Athletics will try to skimp through the season, and might get bit by their cheapness. The Angels will under-perform expectations because their pitching is still rank. Nobody takes the Mariners or Rangers seriously.

That leaves the division to the Houston Astros by default. But they’ll also win on talent. With or without Verlander, this remains what it has been for five years, the best team in the AL West.