Drought alert: MLB teams that could end long ones
Several MLB teams will have a legitimate chance in 2021 to continue one of the more curious trends in baseball, the long-delayed return to glory.
The trend itself is undeniable. Since 2015, five of the six teams crowned champions of baseball ended droughts of at least 30 seasons. That trend continued in 2020 when the Los Angeles Dodgers claimed the World Series in six games over the Tampa Bay Rays, ending a 32-season drought.
MLB teams looking to end championship droughts
In 2019, the Washington Nationals ended two such droughts. They won the franchise’s first World Series title in its 50 seasons of existence, and they also brought the city of Washington its first baseball championship since 1924.
The Houston Astros won the franchise’s first title in 55 seasons in 2017. In 2016 the Chicago Cubs famously broke their franchise’s 108-season drought. And in 2015, the Kansas City Royals defeated the New York Mets to become world champions for the first time since 1985, 30 seasons.
How rare is a 30-season world championship drought? Prior to 2015, it had only happened 11 times in the more than 100-year history of the World Series.
Are there any teams that could end 30-season or longer droughts in 2021? Absolutely. Technically, a dozen teams will enter 2021 with a chance to do so.
For some, of course, that opportunity is mostly theoretical. The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t won it all in 42 seasons, since 1979, and nobody expects them to do it in 2021 either. Ditto for the Baltimore Orioles, without a championship since 1983. That’s 38 seasons. And the Detroit Tigers, championship-less since 1984.
Many give the American League Tampa Bay Rays a legitimate shot to take the final step they nearly took in 2020. The Rays have never won a World Series, but that only encompasses 23 seasons for a franchise founded in 1998. Tenure also disqualifies the Colorado Rockies, who were created in 1993.
But at least five MLB teams enter 2021 with plausible opportunities to end franchise championship droughts of 30 seasons or more.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians certainly have the pitching to win. In Shane Bieber, they have the reigning Cy Young Award winner. Bieber was 8-1 last season with a 1.63 ERA.
While it would be asking a lot of Bieber to repeat that level of excellence – an 8-1 record would translate to 22-3 over a 162-game season – it’s plausible to see him lead a staff that also includes Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and touted youngster Tristan McKenzie to contention.
Cleveland’s question marks involve its offense. The Indians ranked only 13th in runs per game in 2020, and the big changes in their lineups were both negatives, the losses of first baseman Carlos Santana and shortstop Francisco Lindor.
The Indians hope that Andres Gimenez, acquired in exchange for Lindor, can help. They also expect – eventually – Bobby Bradley to replace Santana at first, although Bradley did not make the team’s opening day roster.
Still, combine that pitching with the fact that the Indians finished 35-25 in 2020 and you have plausible 2021 potential.
Cleveland has a recent and frustrating history with postseason play. The Indians went to extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series in 2016 before losing to the Cubs…it’s hard to come closer than that. They also lost a seven-game World Series to the Marlins in extra innings in 1997.
In fact you have to go back to 1948 to find an Indians World Series champion. That year Cleveland survived a sudden-death playoff with the Red Sox to win the American League pennant, then defeated the Boston Braves in a six-game World Series.
Oakland Athletics
Billy Beane famously builds teams for the MLB regular season, a fact that frequently frustrates A’s fans in October. Since 2000, the Athletics have qualified for post-season play 11 times, yet they’ve won just one October series, that coming way back in 2006.
They haven’t won a World Series since 1989; that’s 32 seasons. In fact – omen alert – their drought is precisely as long as the Dodgers was until LA won in 2020. That 1989 team made the second of three straight World Series appearances, losing to the Dodgers in 1988, beating the Giants in 1989 and losing to the Reds in 1990.
Could Oakland win it all in 2021? Las Vegas makes them only the 12th favorite. Still, Beane’s approach means Oakland is likely to fulfill one vital requirement of championship teams…surviving into October. If the recent history of post-season ball demonstrates anything, it demonstrates that if you’re playing you have a chance.
Just ask the 2019 Nats, the 2014 Giants, the 2011 Cardinals, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, the 2003 Marlins, or the 2002 Angels. All were wild card teams that won it all this century.
The Athletics return most of the core of a team that won 60 percent of its games during the shortened 60-game 2020 MLB season. They were four games better than any other team in their division, a margin that translates to 11 games over the course of a full season.
New York Mets
The Mets made most of the winter headlines thanks in large measure to their acquisition of shortstop Francisco Lindor from Cleveland. That plus the team’s purchase by financially endowed owner Steve Cohen have cranked up Mets fandom.
It’s also raised the Mets’ profile among bettors. Vegas makes the Mets the sixth favorite to win the World Series. If they do, it would be the first in Flushing since the great 1986 Mets team of Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling, Gary Carter and Keith Hernandez. That’s a 34-season drought and counting.
Lindor, who agreed to a 10-year extension just before opening day, is expected to be the centerpiece of the team’s push to win its first NL East championship since that 2015 World Series appearance. The 2020 results were disappointing, with only 26 victories and a .433 winning percentage.
The Mets need big seasons from Lindor, first baseman Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeil,, but that combination is plausible.
They also need the usual excellence from Jacob DeGrom plus strong pitching showings from Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco – obtained with Lindor – and Taijuan Walker. Finally they need to find a way to out-perform the Braves, who have won three straight division championships.
But if they can do that, or at minimum secure a wild card, there’s reason to respect the potential for this team to end that long championship drought.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have gone largely overlooked in pre-season prognostication. But they play in the ultra-competitive NL Central, and they made some potentially notable off-season additions, among them Kolten Wong at second base and Jackie Bradley Jr. in right field. Those two elements make another postseason run plausible.
The Brewers begin with the returning nucleus of a 2020 playoff team, although that was due to the expanded playoff format. They were actually a 29-31 team. At the same time, several Brewers – notably including Christian Yelich – had poor 2020s, and any kind of recovery season enhances Milwaukee’s chances.
The pitching staff is probably a team strength. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are viewed as emerging team aces. And perhaps no bullpen in baseball is as feared as Milwaukee’s, with Josh Hader and Devin Williams heading the cast. In 2020, that pair combined for a 1.76 ERA, allowing just 16 hits in 46 innings. They had a 0.76 WHIP and fanned 47 percent of the 178 batters they faced.
The Brewers are on a run of three straight post-season appearances, having won the division as recently as 2018. They played for the NL pennant in 2011, losing to division rival St. Louis in six games.
But the franchise hasn’t played a World Series game since 1982, and hasn’t won a championship in its more than half-century history dating back to its 1969 iteration as the Seattle Pilots.
San Diego Padres
If any team got more off-season attention than the Mets, it was the San Diego Padres. Seeking to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, the Padres beefed up a team that went 37-23 in 2020, adding starters Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.
But the big adjustment may turn out to be the signing of star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. to a long-term extension. He returns to a cast that also includes third baseman Manny Machado, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and starter Dinelson Lamet.
The 2020 season marked a big turnaround in fortunes for the Padres, who hadn’t played a post-season game since 2006 and hadn’t had a .500 season since 2010. The franchise is winless in two World Series, having lost to the Tigers in 1984 and to the Yankees in 1998.
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That 1998 team had the franchise’s best winning percentage prior to 2020, winning 98 games. Its championship drought dates back 51 seasons to its founding in 1969.