MLB’s three true outcomes problem: Tampa visits Miami

The phrase three true outcomes seemed to gain traction among MLB observers and fans in 2019, but maybe it was earlier in some places. My recollection is first encountering the usage in a column by a Philadelphia sports talk host and writer in June of that year.

For the casual fan who doesn’t know the terminology, 3TO refers to a presumed MLB problem because of the rising rates in three offensive categories: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. The problem is that, while many fans consider home runs an exciting part of the game, none of the three true outcomes involves action as such, aside from a ball flying a long way and fans jumping up and down.

Action in baseball involves double plays, circus catches, stolen bases, doubles, triples, and close tag plays, right?

How did the Apr. 2 game between do with whipping up excitement for a potential rivalry?

Anyway, I had none of this in mind when I settled down to watch the Apr. 2 game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins, the second game of their season-opening series. (Clearly, MLB would like these two attendance-challenged Florida teams to develop some sort of rivalry.)

The game was the eastern contest for the MLB Network’s regional coverage notion on Friday night.

It was predicted by the broadcast commentators, Buck Showalter and Matt Yasgersian, to be a low-scoring affair – way to sell it, guys – apparently because both starting pitchers, despite being soft-tossers, are quite effective.

But the visiting Rays seemed to threaten immediately as their second batter walked (3TO no. 1), and AL Rookie of the Year favorite, Randy Arozarena, singled sharply. However, Miami’s starter, Pablo Lopez, stranded them.

Tampa’s starter, Ryan Yarbrough, was even more effective, throwing a perfect game through three innings, and striking out three before he was relieved after 5.2 innings (3TO no. 2 through 4). Lopez departed after five innings after striking out four (3TO no. 5 through 8), as well as walking two (3TO no. 9 and 10). The game was scoreless.

Being an early riser, I turned the game off and went to bed before the bottom of the fifth.

Early Saturday (Apr. 3), I found out the scoring began in the sixth inning when Austin Meadows homered (3TO no. 11 – and OK, I’ll stop that now). For the record, though, there were two more home runs in the game as well as four more walks and seven more strikeouts in Tampa’s 6-4 eventual win.

The record suggests there were two actual plays involving action and excitement beyond losing a baseball – there were two triples, including one by Miami’s Jazz Chisolm that involved a throw getting away from Tampa’s third baseman and Chisolm’s helmet flying off.

For a moment, the possibility of a Little League home run existed – and Chisolm has blue hair! Unfortunately, blue hair adds no further action to the game.

The game’s final score partly obscured MLB’s continuing, off-putting problem with three true outcomes – a couple of exciting plays buried beneath a slow-moving avalanche of inaction. In this case, there were four, full 3TO innings.