Three Bold Predictions For 2021 Miami Marlins Season

No Miami Marlins Are Clearing  20 HRs, But At Least Ten Will Hit 10 HRs

Told you these were gonna be bold Miami Marlins takes.

Once you throw out 2020, there has never been a season where a Marlin has failed to reach the twenty homer mark. They came really close in 2018, but J.T. Realmuto went and ruined it with his 21 HR effort. Even the strike shortened1994 and 1995 seasons saw someone do it. And if I’m really being honest, as recently as a week ago, it wouldn’t have taken a lot to convince me to predict all five members of the infield hitting over 20 HRs. So why make this prediction then?

Because through three days of the 2021 MLB season, it is readily apparent that Don Mattingly will be putting the manage in management when it comes to his players workload this season.

Miami’s roster is an extremely flexible one, with Jon Berti and Garrett Cooper affording Mattingly the ability to routinely rest players this year. Indeed, in Cooper’s case, the team basically has four starters filling three roster spots. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Cooper, Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson, and Adam Duvall all end up playing less than 120 games this season- even if they’re healthy all year long. Which they won’t be. As for Berti, the man can play four positions. He’ll shave away enough at bats to chip into the final homer tally of many a teammate.

This prediction also bakes in the likelihood that a couple clubhouse leaders in home runs come July won’t be finishing the season as Miami Marlins. Miami could easily enter 2022 with three different starting outfielders than they sent out there last Thursday, and that’s true no matter how this season plays out. Young outfielders J.J. Bleday and Peyton Burdick will make an appearance at some point, so that too puts a ceiling on homers for most of Miami’s power bats.

Throw in a new baseball that’s supposed to reduce home runs, and the fact that only two Miami Marlins players have ever hit 30 HRs, and capping everyone at 20 sounds much less crazy.

Now, as for the ten players hitting 10 HRs, everyone in the lineup has at least some pop. It’s just that no one has a crazy amount of it. A healthy mix of players having their innings managed and a couple midseason promotions, and this one becomes more likely than anything else on this list.

Speaking of midseason promotions, a couple of those could feature prominently in our next prediction.