MLB Week 1: teams already in trouble in 2021
It’s official. MLB is already about five percent into the 2021 season after a week full of baseball. Most teams have played around seven or eight games, right about the five percent mark of a full 162-game campaign. Yes, there’s a lot of baseball left. But still, with one week of the season down, there’s no better time to start examining the best and worst of what we’ve seen.
There’s been a number of great headlines from the first week of action. Joe Musgrove just threw the first no-hitter of the season and the first no-no in San Diego Padres franchise history. The Cincinnati Reds are 6-1 thanks to a blistering start from their offensive, scoring a league-leading 63 runs in seven games. Chicago White Sox rookie Yermin Mercedes made history with eight consecutive hits to begin his MLB career.
MLB teams in trouble already
Despite all the great moments, this article has to examine the other side of things. Check out this list of three teams who have gotten out to slower and more painful starts. These are the three teams already in trouble for the 2021 MLB season.
Honorable Mention: Washington Nationals
It goes without saying that suffering the MLB’s first COVID-19 outbreak before the season even began is a bad omen. The Washington Nationals had their first series against the New York Mets, set for Opening Day, canceled after four players tested positive for COVID-19. In total, 11 players were forced to quarantine.
Washington took the field the following week with a cast of replacement players and the results haven’t been outstanding. The Nationals are 1-3 in these four games and scoring an average of only three runs per game, which ranks in the bottom tier of the league. According to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, Washington was expected to win 85 games this season. It’s easily possible things turn around once their full cast of players is available, but this has been a troubling start.
Miami Marlins
In the middle of a rebuild, although it seems like this team is always rebuilding, the Miami Marlins were the biggest surprise of 2020. Not only did Miami earn its first postseason appearance in 17 years, but this franchise also won their Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs.
Miami is led by its young pitching staff, highlighted by sub-3.50 ERA performances from youngsters Sixto Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara. Last year’s offense was relatively average at the plate but did enough to keep this team in ball games and winning series.
Neither of these pieces has come together in 2021 and the Marlins are off to an extremely slow start. Miami is just 1-6 through the first week of the season and already trails the NL East division-leading Philadelphia Phillies by four games. The pitching staff hasn’t been as electric as last season but is still faring relatively well with a 4.19 team ERA, which ranks 17th in the league.
On the other hand, the bats are floundering. Miami scores an average of just three runs per game, the 26th ranking amongst MLB teams. Marlins hitters are batting just .210 at the plate and slugging .299. Last year may have been an aberration, but the offense will need to get going if Miami has any hopes of replicating its success from last year.
Oakland Athletics
The Oakland Athletics are another surprising team off to such a poor start. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections pegged the Athletics to play around .500 baseball throughout the 2021 campaign with an official win-loss prediction of 80-82. In a relatively weak AL West division, that’s enough to keep this team in the playoff hunt late into the season.
Unfortunately, Oakland hasn’t been showing .500 level baseball during the first week of the season. In fact, it’s been much worse. The Athletics are 2-7 and own the worst record in the American League. Oakland is already 4.5 games back of the division lead and the offense is mainly to blame. In nine games, the largest sample size of games for any team through the first week-plus of the season, Oakland scores just 2.78 runs per game. That ranks dead last in the AL and second-worst across baseball.
Oakland’s pitching staff, as a whole, hasn’t fared much better. The A’s rank second-to-last in team ERA with an ugly 6.56 mark. The bullpen, which ranked in the top-tier of the league last season lost All-Star closer Liam Hendriks and a few other names during the offseason and has been in shambles. Oakland already lost new closer Trevor Rosenthal to injury while opposing hitters bat .273 against the A’s pen.
Pittsburgh Pirates
This list of MLB teams already in trouble in 2021 ends with a team likely to finish as the league’s worst team by season end. The Pittsburgh Pirates are the only team from our projections for the worst teams in 2021 to carry over to this new list.
Pittsburgh is understandably beginning a full team rebuild and it’s showing with their on-field performance. By the statistical metrics of runs per game for offense and team ERA for pitching, Pittsburgh ranks dead last in both categories. The Pirates score a dreadful 2.71 runs per game while the pitching staff owns a 6.83 ERA.
This team even won on Opening Day but has suffered six-straight losses and sits five games back of the NL Central division-leading Reds. It should be noted that Pittsburgh also finished with the worst record in the MLB last season after winning just 19 of their 60-game shortened season. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections had the Pirates losing 101 games this season, a mark feared by franchises around the league.
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Early injuries haven’t helped the Pirates’ start in 2021. Rookie third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, the lone bright spot for this rebuilding franchise, has already been placed on the 10-day IL. It’s going to be a long, long year in Pittsburgh.