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Real or surreal: Seven early season MLB surprises

By Bill Felber

Seattle Mariners designated hitter Ty France (23) is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run against the Houston Astros during the fifth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
Seattle Mariners designated hitter Ty France (23) is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run against the Houston Astros during the fifth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Cincinnati Reds are among baseball’s early season surprises.
The Cincinnati Reds are among baseball’s early season surprises. /

The 2021 MLB season has been full of surprises. Who had the Red Sox, Royals, and Mariners leading the three American League divisions? Who had the Yanks in last place in the AL East? And weren’t the Cubs supposed to at least be decent?

About 16 games into a 162-game season, it’s still hard to be sure which storylines are real and which are just surreal. The White Sox, after all, hired a 76-year-old field manager to preside over the coronation of a budding dynasty. That 8-8 record must be surreal, right?

And who gave the Cincinnati Reds, a team virtually devoid of serious pitching, permission to hold first place in the NL Central? Real or surreal?

Which early season MLB surprises will last?

Seasons always provide surprises of this sort, some of which carry forward. Nobody had the Miami Marlins in playoff contention in 2020, yet the Marlins not only got there, they actually won a postseason series. The Nationals were largely dismissed as perennial also-rans in 2019…until they won the World Series.

So which of the surprising MLB stories from the first three weeks of 2021 stack up as potentially real, and which are just surreal? Below we’re looking at seven teams who, whether for better or worse, simply aren’t doing what everybody expected them to be doing this season.

We’ll look at why each of the seven teams is performing out of line with expectations. Then we’ll assess the percentage likelihood that its current performance pattern is “real” – that it will approximately continue through 2021 – or become a surreal mirage.

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