Real or surreal: Seven early season MLB surprises
By Bill Felber
Boston Red Sox, 11-6
The Red Sox roasted the Chicago White Sox 11-4 in Monday’s Patriots Day Game, probably the exact opposite of the result most people would have anticipated when they considered that meeting during the preseason.
Boston is coming off a nine-game winning streak and a 7-1 road trip.
In Boston, it’s all about the offense. The Red Sox are first in the AL in average (.277), first in OPS (.788), and second in runs per game (5.31.) A revitalized J.D. Martinez is off to a .364, five-homer start with an other-worldly 1.190 OPS. Xander Bogaerts is batting .386.
The pitching has flourished in that lush offensive environment, sometimes despite so-so numbers. Boston’s 3.68 staff ERA and four runs allowed per game are both upper-third. Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nick Pivetta have all been respectable – even occasionally excellent – and that has enabled the Sox’ record to survive occasional lapses by Garrett Richards and Martin Perez.
Still, Red Sox fans ought to be uneasy about that 11-6. They might be asking these questions. Which is more likely: that Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Rodriguez all deliver throughout the MLB season, or that as they falter the pitching performance reverts to expectations, which were so-so at best? The answer is the latter.
Which is more likely: that Martinez stratospherically continues to carry the offense, or that his production returns to normal? Not that there’s anything wrong with Martinez’s normal, but it’s not going to carry a team to wins in nearly two-thirds of its games.
Finally, which is more likely: that Boston‘s AL East competition continues to play sub-.500 ball or that some combination of the Jays, Rays, and Yankees find themselves? The prospect that one or more of those teams catches fire has the feel of inevitability to it.
Odds that Boston’s 11-7 record is real: 29 percent.