Kansas City Royals, 9-5
Let’s be fair: There were a few folks this winter who wondered whether the Royals might be a pleasant MLB surprise this season. Almost all of them, of course, live in Kansas City.
For almost everybody else, the judgment was that the White Sox, or the Twins, or possibly the Indians – and probably all three – would dominate the AL Central and thus render Kansas City games irrelevant.
There’s obviously a lot we still don’t know about how legit the Royals are likely to be in the AL Central. Their first 14 games have included only four against divisional opponents: they’re 2-2. What they have done is win series from both the Blue Jays and Angels, two clubs widely seen as on the rise this year.
Aside from Whit Merrifield’s knockout .321/.371/.547 slash line, the Royals haven’t done anything especially remarkable. But they have been consistent. They’re sixth in the AL in runs per game, sixth in OPS, fifth in fewest runs allowed per game, and seventh in team ERA.
They’ve also benefitted from the apparent evenness of the AL Central. None of the league’s supposed big brothers has put anything substantial together, contributing to the impression that the division will be a summer-long fight. And if it’s a fight, why couldn’t it be a four team fight?
That doesn’t mean the Royals are likely to keep up their present .642 winning pace. But they don’t need to do that: in the AL Central, even a .520 summer-long pace might be good enough to contend. That they can do.
Odds that KC’s 9-5 record is real: 61 percent.