Cincinnati Reds, 9-6
When the Reds lost Trevor Bauer from a team that barely broke .500 in the abbreviated 2020 season, the prevailing assumption was that this was a club on the downturn. Instead, the Reds are clinging, if tenuously, to first place in the NL Central. How?
Some of it is the afterglow of a strong start. One week into the season the Reds were 6-1, averaging better than nine runs per game against division rivals St. Louis and Pittsburgh. Since then they’re 4-5.
To date, Reds’ fortunes have risen and fallen with the team’s offense. Cincinnati is averaging eight runs per game in the team’s nine victories, just three runs in its six defeats. So much of the club’s prospect for continued success likely hinges on the level at which the team’s production eventually stabilizes.
Jesse Winker has been a pleasant surprise. He’s batting .368 with a.953 OPS. Give Jesse Winker that level of production all season and the Reds breeze home. That; however, isn’t happening.
On the other hand, Eugenio Suarez is off to an almost invisible .173 start reminiscent of his .202 2020 season. At some point, both Suarez’s and Winker’s averages level off at more realistic levels.
Then the question becomes whether Cincinnati has the pitching to stand up to the rigors of a full MLB season. For now, the numbers are mid-pack: eighth in the NL in ERA and runs allowed per game. Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Mahle, and Wade Miley are off to impressive starts, but all have track records that identify them as average talents at best.
When they and all Winker revert to form, the Reds’ record is likely to do so as well. Happily for the Reds, in the NL Central, that doesn’t knock them out of contention.
Odds that Cincinnati’s 9-6 record is real: 36 percent.