Seattle Mariners, 10-6
One-tenth of the way through the season, the Mariners sit atop the AL West. Nobody predicted that.
The Mariners famously have the longest postseason drought of any team in major American professional sports, 20 seasons entering 2021. The wise money viewed the West as a fight between the Astros and Athletics unless the Angels somehow lived up to their latent talent.
How then do we assess Seattle’s league-leading 10-6 start? Largely as a mirage, that’s how.
That the Mariners have been fortunate is reflected in the club’s 8-8 Pythagorean record. That’s what the team ought to be doing if statistical performance governed. The reality is that the Mariners have scored three fewer runs (70) than they’ve allowed (73) so far this year, a neat and unsustainable trick for a 10-6 club.
Six of the team’s 16 games – that’s 38 percent — have been decided by one run and Seattle has won four of the six. Winning a preponderance of close games is rarely sustainable.
DH Ty France has been an interesting element to date. France is batting .305 with a .925 OPS. Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn are a pair of young pitchers whose performances deserve deeper consideration.
Still, the evidence points to the conclusion that Seattle has been more fortunate than persuasive. Given three more weeks, the bet is that the Mariners can be found receding toward the middle ranks of their division while building a case to be seriously considered in some future MLB season. As usual.
Odds that Seattle’s 10-6 record is real: 15 percent.