New York Mets: Where Jacob deGrom ranks among the immortals

Jacob deGrom, Tom Seaver, or Dwight Gooden…who ya got?

As deGrom continues to pile up other-worldly strikeout numbers, a lot of New York Mets fans are beginning to ask questions of that sort. The comparisons are not at all absurd or invalid; the numbers deGrom is accumulating look more Seaver-like or Gooden-like with each start.

Where does Jacob deGrom rank amongst the New York Mets immortals?

Through his dominant Friday appearance against the Washington Nationals, deGrom has made 187 appearances. That becomes the logical baseline number by which to measure deGrom against the franchise’s two other all-time greats.

For deGrom, by far the bleakest criteria is chronological. Debuting in his mid 20s in 2014, he will turn 33 this June. By that point in their careers, Seaver  – who debuted in 1967 at age 22 – had already been traded to the Cincinnati Reds and Gooden – who hit the big leagues at age 19 – was trying to resurrect his career with the Cleveland Indians.

The other huge disadvantage for deGrom is workload. He has pitched a hair under 1,200 innings to date – basically 6.5 innings per appearance. Seaver and Gooden – both of whom pitched in eras more tolerant of starter workload – averaged 7.6 and 7.2 innings per appearance respectively through 187 games.

Some other numbers, though, are favorable to consideration of deGrom as equal to – or superior to – Seaver or Gooden or both.

Begin with earned run average. deGrom’s career ERA as of this weekend is 2.55. That sits squarely between Seaver’s 2.34 and Gooden’s 2.72 through 187 games.

But context is important in consideration of ERA. Simply put, deGrom has pitched in a far more hitter-friendly era. The National League ERA for the period of Seaver’s first 187 appearances – essentially from 1987 through seven appearances into 1972 – was 3.49. For Gooden, the comparison between his debut in 1984 and his first 10 appearances of 1990 was 3.67.

That means deGrom’s ERA is actually just 62 percent of the average for the period in which he has pitched. Gooden sits at 67 percent for his era, Seaver at 74 percent.

ERA+, which is similarly based but factors ballparks into its equation, also gives deGrom the edge at 153 compared with 146 for Seaver and 132 for Gooden.

Here’s a look at data for all three in some other frequently watched categories.

                                deGrom               Seaver                  Gooden

Wins                          72                         101                         103

Losses                      52                           55                            43

Strikeouts          1,409                     1,206                     1,238

WAR                          38                           37                           31.5

Avg Game score    64.25                     64.6                        67.8

Win Prob. Added   21.7                      24.6                         18.8

BA Agnst.*             86%                        88%                          90%

*Measured as a percentage of the NL average.

deGrom comes up short in victories for reasons having to do with run support or his manager’s quick hook that every modern New York Mets fan is already painfully aware of. But in most categories that are not era-dependent, or which can easily be normalized – he holds his own.

Over the course of a full career, the biggest impediment to deGrom’s rank among the game’s great pitches is likely to be the combination of his late start and the tendency of modern managers to pull pitchers at or even before the first hint of trouble. That depresses both his workload and his victory total.

Over time it’s not at all out of the question that it also impacts deGrom’s Hall of Fame credentials. Assuming he pitches to age 40 — a big if with any pitcher – deGrom has this season plus seven more to perform. That means he is about halfway through his useful pitching life, and that may be an optimistic assessment.

But even assuming that deGrom wins as many games going forward as he has won to date, that leaves him with just 144 career victories. Only three men have ever been inducted with fewer than 180 victories, none with fewer than Dizzy Dean’s 150. (The other two were Addie Joss, 160, and Sandy Koufax, 165.)

To even get to 150 career victories by age 40, Jacob deGrom would need to average 18.5 victories per season from here on out. He’s never won more than 15 in any season to date.