Chicago Cubs have a Kyle Hendricks problem

The Chicago Cubs‘ hopes for the 2021 season hinged on two things – a resurgence from their offense and for Kyle Hendricks to step up as the team ace. So far, neither of those have happened.

While the offensive struggles should resolve themselves over time, the same may not be able to be said about Hendricks. After five outings, and nearly a month into the season, alarm bells have to be going off in the Cubs’ front office.

Kyle Hendricks has been a disaster for Chicago Cubs

Hendricks actually had a solid second outing, as he allowed just four hits and a walk over six shutout innings, striking out six, on April 7. However, since that time, he has been an utter disaster, allowing 16 runs on 24 hits and four walks in his 13.2 innings. Nine of those hits have gone over the fence.

The homer was a problem even in the one quality start he had in that span. He allowed two runs in six innings on April 23, but both runs scored via solo homers. Hendricks has allowed a major league leading ten homers in his 22.2 innings this year, four more than any other National League pitcher, and two ahead of Mike Foltynewicz in second place.

He is simply not fooling anyone. Despite having less than impressive velocity, Hendricks had been able to generate soft contact and pick his spots throughout his career. That is no longer the case, as he ranks in the seventh percentile with a 15.1% barrel rate and 38th percentile with a 41.6% hard hit rate. Opponents have an expected batting line of .329/.454/.630 against Hendricks, while his 8.29 FIP is actually worse than the 7.54 ERA he has posted this year. Things could actually be worse.

This year’s results are far out of line compared to his career norms. In his worst showing, Hendricks had allowed a 5.7% barrel rate back in 2018, but had continued to generate soft contact. However, his hard hit rate had been creeping up every year since 2016, when he posted a 27.5% rate. His hard hit rate of 31.8% last season had been his career worst before this year’s rough start.

After Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres, and a host of middling options were brought into the fold, the Cubs needed Hendricks to continue to be the top of the rotation arm he has been in order to contend. Instead, they have a pitcher who would seemingly be more at home in the Home Run Derby taking a turn every fifth day. If the Cubs want to turn around their fortunes, Hendricks needs to figure out his issues quickly.

Kyle Hendricks has been getting crushed this season, becoming particularly vulnerable to the home run. The Chicago Cubs need him to figure things out fast.