The RBI core-five: The difference between .500 and winning?

Can Five Games Be Reflected in RBI Core-Five Changes?

What happened in terms of the RBI core-five? For Philadelphia, their top five qualified RBI producers remained the same – Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, Realmuto, and Harper. Harper and Realmuto had flipped their positions in the core-five. The group had continued to produce 0.53 runs per player per game, in large part because of a three-run homer by Bohm and two RBI from Hoskins in an 8-7 loss May 2 to the Mets.

So, until Apr. 27 the Phillies were a game under .500; between Apr. 28 and May 2 they went one game under .500. And their RBI core-five production remained steady.

The Dodgers situation was somewhat different, but their RBI core-five production also reflected a 2-3 performance. After the five games examined, their seasonal RBI core-five production slipped from 0.70 runs per game to 0.67 – still considerably better than the Phillies figure.

However, the make-up of LA’s RBI core-five had changed since Apr. 27. It now included two unqualified hitters, McKinstry and A.J. Pollack. That McKinstry stayed there should concern future Dodgers opponents – it means that his production before hitting the IL was so good – 0.82 runs per game – that he could afford to miss five games and remain among the team’s RBI leaders.

Pollack had leapt to the RBI core-five with eight RBI against the Brewers in LA’s blow-out 16-4 win on May 2.

Moreover, while the Dodgers had just weathered a rough stretch longer than their five games after Apr. 27, their RBI core-five, a changing group, had remained pretty steady in  terms of production, even with a couple of players jumping in and out of the top five.

In other words, LA’s RBI core-five was more like a core-seven. Just behind their top five were Muncy and Matt Beatty, both with 11 RBI, producing together 0.49 RBI per game – not miles from the Phillies’ “steady” core-five figure. Beatty was producing 0.61 RBI per game.

Thus, examining the RBI core-five notion, it seems that the difference between a mediocre team and a very good one is in pretty narrow range because of aggregating. It may be the difference between approximately 0.50 and 0.75 RBI per player per game for five, possibly changing hitters. Further number crunching is likely needed, though, to say whether a 0.50 RBI core-five figure generally predicts a team near .500.

Also, a top team may well not have a steady RBI core-five. The best squads may have a couple more players challenging for positions in that core – in other words, a potential lineup of seven productive hitters.