Rating Albert Pujols among the greats

Peak Win Probability Added

The definition of Win Probability Added is the change in probability of victory created by the batter’s performance. It is normally expressed as we will express it here, as an estimate of additional victories created by the player, although it can be expressed in other forms and fashions.

Pujols’ best period of five consecutive seasons based on Win Probability Added occurred between 2006 and 2010, when he averaged 6.78 wins for the Cardinals.  Give any reasonably competent team one or two such greats and they will likely run away with their division flag.

Because the calculation for Win Probability Added depends on full and accurate play-by-play accounts,  data Is not available for players prior to the second decade of the 20th Century. That reduces our field of 24 eligible players to just 20.

But Pujols does very well in this category. In fact, he rates higher than in any other peak or career category we’ll look at.

His closest comparable is a flattering one, indeed; Willie Mays, at 6.80.

For the record, here is the top 10

Rank      Player                   Avg.       Seasons

1              Barry Bonds        9.84        2000-2004

2              Babe Ruth           8.10        1920-1924

3              Lou Gehrig          7.68        1932-1936

4              Willie McCovey 7.18        1966-1970

5              Mickey Mantle  7.16        1954-1958

6              Jimmie Foxx       7.02        1932-1936

7              Willie Mays         6.80        1962-1966

8              Albert Pujols      6.78        2006-2010

9              Ted Williams       6.54        1954-1958

10            Hank Aaron       6.48        1959-1963