Los Angeles Dodgers: Reassessing the Mookie Betts trade

How much better off would the Los Angeles Dodgers be today if they had agreed to the deal the Boston Red Sox wanted to make in December of 2019?

That was when the Red Sox were in the process of figuring out a way to unload the very pricey contract of David Price along with the looming problem of re-signing the even more pricey Mookie Betts.

What if the Los Angeles Dodgers accepted the Red Sox’s offer?

They talked to the Dodgers, one of the few teams with the cash to consider taking both on. The Dodgers were interested, but concerned about the price Boston hoped to exact.

Notably, that price involved infielder Gavin Lux, considered among the top prospects in the Los Angeles system.

The Dodgers drew a sharp black line around Lux. Jon Heyman reported that month that the Dodgers would not include Lux in a trade “in any scenario.” He was viewed at the time as the type of player a franchise could build around for a lengthy period.

Instead, the Dodgers talked the Red Sox down to what was viewed as a lesser package: Price and Betts for utility player Alex Verdugo. Eventually, the deal also included prospects  Jeter Downs and Connor Wong.

Experts slammed the deal from Boston’s perspective. Sports Illustrated’s Matt Martell gave the Red Sox a “D,” asking pointedly, “is this really the best deal the Red Sox could make for Betts?” He asserted that it was “far from assured that Verdugo…” will be the cornerstone of the next great Red Sox team” and termed the package “lackluster.”

Dodger manager Dave Roberts himself said on Twitter that, “we got a steal.”

Given that the Dodgers won the 2020 World Series with Betts playing a prominent part, it’s both impossible and illogical to argue with Roberts’ judgment. Any team would and should make any deal that would ensure them an immediate World Series championship. That’s what the Cubs did in trading touted prospect Gleyber Torres to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman in the summer of 2016, and they were right to do so.

But that isn’t the issue. The issue, in retrospect, was whether the Dodgers were right to put the ‘untouchable’ label on Lux while making Verdugo available.

The evidence accumulating on that largely forgotten aspect of the deal is beginning to strongly suggest that Dodger management fell too much in love with its prospect and failed to notice what it already had on its roster.

At the time of his inclusion in the deal, Verdugo was a 23-year-old outfielder who had just completed his first full season.  He batted .294 with a solid .817 OPS and a 3.0 WAR for the 2019 Dodgers.

Since settling in Boston, he has consistently hit above .300 with an OPS around .830, and to date, he has given the Red Sox 3.2 WAR. The Dodgers didn’t need that contribution in 2020: with Betts plus a healthy Cody Bellinger they were just fine in the outfield.

But funny things happen. Bellinger has been hurt much of 2021, and the Dodger offense is just floundering along. Lux is part of the reason for that floundering. Batting only .175 in part-time duty in 2020, he is off to a .220 start as the regular second baseman in 2021. His 2020-21 OPS is around .560, about 270 points worse than the player the Dodgers traded instead of him. Lux has generated just six-tenths of a WAR, one-fifth of Verdugo’s productivity.

With Lux settled in at second base, the Dodgers have started a disappointing 18-16 and at this early stage barely qualify for a post-season position.

With Verdugo, the Red Sox, by contrast, have opened the season 21-13 and have the majors’ best record.

How Lux and Verdugo may be viewed a decade from now obviously cannot yet be determined. But so far, the appearance is that the Los Angeles Dodgers would have been better off giving the Red Sox what they asked for in the first place.