The Miami Marlins were not expected to be a contender in the National League East this season. They were a nice story last year, emerging from out of nowhere to finish second in the division despite a roster decimated by the pandemic. Miami even advanced to the second round before being bounced by the Braves, but that story was not supposed to continue in 2021.
To look at the standings, it has not. The Marlins sit in fourth with a 15-18 record entering Monday, three games out of first. Just the fact that they are not in the basement at this point in the season could be considered a success.
Miami Marlins should be leading the NL East
But the Marlins record is deceiving. They are the only team in the division with a positive run differential at +20, the eighth best mark in baseball, ahead of teams such as the Padres and Yankees. Their Pythagorean record stands at 18-15, the best in the division by two games over the Phillies.
It is easy to see why the Marlins are having that degree of success in terms of their expected performance. The pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball, with their 3.24 ERA ranking third in the NL. A revamped bullpen has been much better since Yimi Garcia took over as closer, ranking as one of the best in the game since that time.
The problem has been an inconsistent offense which ranks tenth in the NL with 135 runs scored. Brian Anderson, the closest thing they have to a star in the lineup, has been a tremendous disappointment. Catcher has been a black hole all season and they have gotten virtually nothing from the bench.
It will be interesting to see how the Marlins perform as the season continues. The division has been somewhat of a disappointment, with none of the expected teams really taking a step forward. Should Miami continue to hover around .500, and be within a couple of games of a playoff berth, a quietly solid move could make all the difference. The Marlins seem to be closer than one may expect.
Based on expectations, the Miami Marlins should be leading the NL East. If their offense begins to perform as hoped, that may happen soon enough.