MLB Rookie of the Year candidates: A re-assessment
By Bill Felber
Among the surer things when the 2021 MLB season began, at least as far as the experts were concerned, were the identities of the eventual AL and NL Rookie of the Year winners. Tampa Bay outfielder Randy Arozarena and Pittsburgh third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes were the overwhelming picks.
Predictions are often a fool’s errand, of course, and that’s especially so when the subject turns to individual awards. Barely one-quarter of the way through the season, Arozarena and Hayes have both lost considerable altitude in those races.
Reviewing the MLB Rookie of the Year candidates
In fact, most of the consensus pre-season picks as stars of the 2021 rookie class have struggled, some mightily, since play actually began.
Some like Hayes, have been undone by injuries. But others, Arozarena being a prime example, have gotten a full shot and performed only so-so at best.
In their places, a handful of rookies have so far lived up to, and even exceeded, expectations. But among the 20 or so first-year names garnering the most pre-season attention, the ranks of those over-achievers are slim.
There remains, of course, most of the season to be played. That’s more than enough time for the favorites to assert themselves and possibly even win the award.
The performances of the eventual 2020 MLB Rookies of the Year, Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis and Milwaukee pitcher Devin Williams, prove the importance of a fast start
Approaching the one-quarter point in 2020 – about where we’re at today – Lewis was batting in the .350s with a .941 OPS. Lewis hit safely in 13 of his first 14 games.
He kept it up for two more weeks, lifting his average to close to .370 by midseason before closing tepidly. In fact, Lewis won the award despite hitting just .141 – 12 hits in 85 at bats – from Aug. 28 on. By then, however, he had long since made his case.
One-quarter of the way into his 2020 season, Williams had already shown off his dominant stuff. Of the first 29 batters he faced, he struck out a dozen and allowed hits to just three.
Unlike Lewis, Williams never did back off that pace, completing 27 innings with just one earned run allowed and 53 strikeouts. Only 18 batters reached base against him, only eight by base hits.
Here’s a look at how the 2021 pre-season Rookie of the Year favorites have gotten started.