MLB Rookie of the Year candidates: A re-assessment

Among the surer things when the 2021 MLB season began, at least as far as the experts were concerned, were the identities of the eventual AL and NL Rookie of the Year winners. Tampa Bay outfielder Randy Arozarena and Pittsburgh third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes were the overwhelming picks.

Predictions are often a fool’s errand, of course, and that’s especially so when the subject turns to individual awards. Barely one-quarter of  the way through the season, Arozarena and Hayes have both lost considerable altitude in those races.

Reviewing the MLB Rookie of the Year candidates

In fact, most of the consensus pre-season picks as stars of the 2021 rookie class have struggled, some mightily, since play actually began.

Some like Hayes, have been undone by injuries. But others, Arozarena being a prime example, have gotten a full shot and performed only so-so at best.

In their places, a handful of rookies have so far lived up to, and even exceeded, expectations. But among the 20 or so first-year names garnering the most pre-season attention, the ranks of those over-achievers are slim.

There remains, of course, most of the season to be played. That’s more than enough time for the favorites to assert themselves and possibly even win the award.

The performances of the eventual 2020 MLB Rookies of the Year, Seattle outfielder Kyle Lewis and Milwaukee pitcher Devin Williams, prove the importance of a fast start

Approaching the one-quarter point in 2020 – about where we’re at today – Lewis was batting in the .350s with a .941 OPS. Lewis hit safely in 13 of his first 14 games.

He kept it up for two more weeks, lifting his average to close to .370 by midseason before closing tepidly. In fact, Lewis won the award despite hitting just .141 – 12 hits in 85 at bats – from Aug. 28 on. By then, however, he had long since made his case.

One-quarter of the way into his 2020 season, Williams had already shown off his dominant stuff. Of the first 29 batters he faced, he struck out a dozen and allowed hits to just three.

Unlike Lewis, Williams never did back off that pace, completing 27 innings with just one earned run allowed and 53 strikeouts. Only 18 batters reached base against him, only eight by base hits.

Here’s a look at how the 2021 pre-season Rookie of the Year favorites have gotten started.

OK, I guess

Terming Randy Arozarena a disappointment would be too harsh. But he hasn’t risen to stardom the way many expected, and his lukewarm performance to date is probably a big reason why the Rays, stuck in fourth place in the AL East, are generally viewed as a disappointment.

Arozarena is batting .252 with a .734 OPS. That OPS is measurably above the MLB average of .702, but it’s well below what Arozarena produced during 2019 and 2020 auditions, not to mention his star turn in the 2020 post-season.

The Tigers hoped that 2020 would be the season their young pitchers would lead a renaissance, with Casey Mize in a starring role.

Thus far Mize has been only average at best. He’s made seven appearances with a 4.19 ERA. Two of those starts, coming back to back in mid-April versus Oakland and Kansas City, hurt his stats. Mize allowed 11 earned runs in less than 10 innings on those two dates. In his other five starts he’s actually been pretty good.

The Cincinnati Reds hoped Jonathan India, a farm system product, would be the answer at second base. India has shown some power – he has three home runs and a .412 slugging average. But his .235 batting average and 25 percent strikeout rate are average at best, and that’s in a bad year for offense.

In the hospital

On opening day, Ke’Bryan Hayes looked every bit the part of star in the making. He homered and drove in two runs to help Pittsburgh to a win in Chicago. One day later he injured his wrist, and he hasn’t seen the field since.

Following a mid-April setback, Hayes has recently been described by Pirates general manager Ben Cherington as ‘progressing well,’ although Pirates leadership has made a point of not setting even a preliminary timetable for his return.

Sixto Sanchez was supposed to be a bulwark of the Marlins rotation. After all, he looked good in seven 2020 starts and beat the Cubs in a postseason game.

But spring arm soreness sent him to the injury list, and Sanchez has not yet thrown a pitch in anger during the 2021 MLB regular season. In fact it is by no means certain that he will see the field at all in 2021; team officials haven’t ruled him out but they also have not provided anything that could be interpreted as a sign of optimism.

The Blue Jays have projected Nate Pearson as a young key to the development of a contending pitching staff that would complement all that talent they’ve been amassing in the every-day lineup. It appeared that 2021 would be Pearson’s breakout year.

But after fighting through groin problems, Pearson finally made his season debut May 9 against the Houston Astros. It did not go well. Lasting 16 batters, he gave up three run on four hits and walked five.  He was immediately optioned back to Buffalo, where his next start is postponed pending further evaluation.

Too soon to tell

Jarred Kelenic, the most-hyped AL rookie this side of Arozarena, debuted for the Mariners Thursday against Cleveland. Eight plate appearances into what is expected to be a long major league life, he has a home run, three RBIs and a slash line that would be stupid good if it meant anything.

The Mariners gave Kelenic a chance after he pretty much showed that he would destroy Triple-A pitching if left in Tacoma, where he was batting .370 with a 1.043 OPS when promoted.

He’s obviously worth watching.

So is Garrett Crochet. A two-week stint on the injury list interrupted a promising start that included allowing just one earned run in his first nine innings. Back in uniform, Crochet has picked up where he left off, lowering his ERA to 0.84. But he’s fewer than 11 innings into his career, so anointing him as the next Devin Williams is premature.

Speculating about Wander Franco is even more premature. In the early off-season speculation, the Rays’ middle infielder was touted as a Rookie of the Year darkhorse. With reason, since he is listed as the No. 1 prospect by Baseball America.

But Rays management decided to leave Franco behind when the team broke spring camp, and it is now considered questionable whether he ever sees the inside of the Trop this season. Since he’s only 20, Franco has plenty of time to make a mark. But you can’t win Rookie of the Year in Durham.

Disappointments

The Boston Red Sox handed the first base job to rookie Bobby Dalbec in the hope that he would lead them toward the upper reaches of the AL East.

The Sox are holding to first place and Dalbec is slotted in at first on a daily basis. But Boston has achieved most of its success despite Dalbec, not because of him.

The rookie is batting .206 through his first 32 games with a poor .644 OPS and a team-co-high 38 strikeouts. Between April 24 and May 6, he suffered through a one-for-35 stretch, despite which Boston managed to go 6-4. The Red Sox need more from Dalbec if they are to hold off the charging Yankees.

As a minor league prospect, Gavin Lux was considered untouchable by Dodger management. He’s an MLBer now, and a surprisingly ordinary one. The Dodgers’ regular second baseman, Lux is batting just .235 in his first full season with a .593 OPS.

That’s way below the .702 major league average, and since the defending champs find themselves in third place in  their division it’s fair to assign some portion of responsibility for that under-performance to Lux.

The Indians have been willing to part with mound stars of the stripe of Trevor Bauer in part because prospect such as Triston McKenzie were percolating up the ladder. Indeed, coming off a 3.24 ERA in eight 2020 appearances McKenzie’s was a frequent name mentioned as a breakout star in 2021.

To date, McKenzie has been very ordinary. He’s started five games and allowed 13 runs in fewer than 24 innings, a 4.94 ERA.

Control has been a major problem. McKenzie leads the AL in bases on balls issued with 22.

Is Akil Baddoo a find? When the 22-year-old Tiger rookie homered in each of his first two games, some thought so. Two weeks into the season he was hitting .370 with a nifty 1.342 OPS.

Since then Baddoo has done almost nothing. He has a .125 batting average since April 15 with four times as many strikeouts (29) as hits (seven).

Major Disappointments

In a March piece for MLB.com, Jonathan Mayo identified Orioles first baseman-outfielder Ryan Mountcastle as the third favorite for AL Rookie of the Year behind only Arozarena and Kelenic. It was not an unreasonable speculation: Mountcastle batted .333 in 35 games for the Orioles in 2020 with an .878 OPS.

The 2021 season has so far been a spectacular letdown for Mountcastle. In approximately the same number of plate appearances as he got in  2020, his average is down to .212, his OPS is off more than 300 percentage points, and he has driven in just 12 runs.

He has struck out 45 times, 10 more than any other Oriole. Only six American Leaguers have more whiffs to date.

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde has resolutely stayed with Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in plate appearances, behind only Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins and Maikel Franco. But the question has to be asked how much longer Hyde can ride his rookie star without seeing some return to the form he showed during that 2020 introduction.

Like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal was to be a centerpiece of the Tigers’ 2021 renaissance…at least if there was to be 2021 renaissance.

There may not be a more disappointing first-year starter in baseball. Skubal has made six starts, losing give of them plus one of his two relief appearances. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 33 innings, a deadly 5.73 ERA.

The reason is pretty obvious: an abundance of baserunners. In those 33 innings, Skubal has allowed 54 of them, 11 of whom took him out of the park. Throwing a home run ball every three innings is not a sustainable path to success.