MLB Rookie of the Year candidates: A re-assessment

May 13, 2021; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) is congratulated by third base coach Rodney Linares (27) after hitting a three-run home run in the sixth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
May 13, 2021; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) is congratulated by third base coach Rodney Linares (27) after hitting a three-run home run in the sixth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
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Tarik Skubal. Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Tarik Skubal. Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Major Disappointments

In a March piece for MLB.com, Jonathan Mayo identified Orioles first baseman-outfielder Ryan Mountcastle as the third favorite for AL Rookie of the Year behind only Arozarena and Kelenic. It was not an unreasonable speculation: Mountcastle batted .333 in 35 games for the Orioles in 2020 with an .878 OPS.

The 2021 season has so far been a spectacular letdown for Mountcastle. In approximately the same number of plate appearances as he got in  2020, his average is down to .212, his OPS is off more than 300 percentage points, and he has driven in just 12 runs.

He has struck out 45 times, 10 more than any other Oriole. Only six American Leaguers have more whiffs to date.

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde has resolutely stayed with Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in plate appearances, behind only Trey Mancini, Cedric Mullins and Maikel Franco. But the question has to be asked how much longer Hyde can ride his rookie star without seeing some return to the form he showed during that 2020 introduction.

Like Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal was to be a centerpiece of the Tigers’ 2021 renaissance…at least if there was to be 2021 renaissance.

There may not be a more disappointing first-year starter in baseball. Skubal has made six starts, losing give of them plus one of his two relief appearances. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 33 innings, a deadly 5.73 ERA.

The reason is pretty obvious: an abundance of baserunners. In those 33 innings, Skubal has allowed 54 of them, 11 of whom took him out of the park. Throwing a home run ball every three innings is not a sustainable path to success.