MLB: Five most surprising pitchers in 2021
In the first full year since COVID hit, MLB has seen plenty of injuries to star players. We have already seen plenty of bad blood between teams and one old-school major causing massive waves in Chicago. We’ve also seen some surprising players in 2021.
However, we like to look at the bright side of things and enjoy the game of baseball. After about a month and a half of baseball, it is time to see the five surprising pitchers in 2021, in terms of production. Some familiar names have made the list and some newer names are on the list. One player, at the time of writing, was absolutely dominant but injured himself while punching a bench.
The biggest surprises in MLB thus far
John Means, SP, Baltimore Orioles
John Means was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 11th round in the 2014 MLB draft out of West Virginia University. Since making his major league debut in 2018 (1 game), Means has shown improvement each year. 2019 was Means’ first full season and he made the most of it in 27 starts despite being part of a team that finished last in the American League East. Means was named the Orioles’ All-Star in 2019 and finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting while posting a 3.60 ERA across 155 innings. Means’ command and control were more than evident by striking out 121 opponents and only walking 38.
In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Means struggled a bit but his peripheral numbers either remained close to the same or they improved. The lefty increased his K/9 by almost two full strikeouts (7.0 in 2019 compared to 8.7 in 2020). Through 8 starts, including a no-hitter, in 2021, Means has continued to strike out opponents at a 9.2 K/9 rate.
John Means. No hitter! 🍾🍾 pic.twitter.com/dRHSUo9ZaL
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2021
The 28-year-old has is one of the best pitchers in the American League, right now. He leads pitchers in the American League in Wins Above Replacement (2.7) with Gerrit Cole and Kyle Gibson trailing. Gibson may be a trade chip this year despite not being arbitration-eligible until 2022. He will not be a free agent until 2025 which could entice some teams to part with top prospects in exchange for a top-tier lefty starter. John Means’ steady increase in production and no-hitter make him one of the five surprising players in 2021.
Huascar Ynoa, SP, Atlanta Braves
Huascar Ynoa enters his third year in MLB with the Atlanta Braves. In 2019, his age-21 season, Ynoa only saw two appearances and did horrible. Ynoa gave up six runs in three innings. In his age-22 season, Ynoa saw nine appearances including five starts for the Braves. He compiled a 1.662 WHIP in 21 ⅔ innings pitched while allowing 23 hits and 13 walks. Now in his age-23 season, Ynoa has found his rhythm and comfort. The Braves have placed the righty in the rotation and across eight starts (nine total appearances), Ynoa has struck out an amazing 50 batters in 44 ⅔ innings pitched while only walking 11. His penchant to give up the home run is concerning (7 HR allowed).
The 23-year-old is making up for those home runs but hitting a few of his own. In 17 plate appearances, Ynoa is hitting .353/.353/1.118 with 2 home runs and six RBI’s. Sure, it’s a small sample size and his average will surely drop but he is contributing to the Braves on offense and defense. Despite being one of the five surprising pitchers in 2021, Ynoa is now on the disabled list for the foreseeable future after punching a bench in anger.
Braves starter Huascar Ynoa fractured his right hand yesterday after punching a dugout bench in frustration. He's out indefinitely.
— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) May 17, 2021
The 22-year-old right-hander owns a 3.02 ERA through 44.2 innings pitched this season. pic.twitter.com/szJqma9HO4
Ian Kennedy, RP, Texas Rangers
The 36-year-old Ian Kennedy has had to reinvent himself over the last three years by retiring his spot in the rotation and picking up a spot to anchor the bullpen. The 15-year MLB veteran is currently leading the major leagues in saves (10) while showing impeccable control (20K/4BB) in 16 innings.
Compared to 2020, Kennedy is on his way to an All-Star season as a reliever. In 2020, Kennedy experienced quite a bit of trouble in only 14 innings of work. Kennedy gave up 7 home runs in 15 games after giving up 6 home runs in 63 appearances the year prior. His HR/9 has dropped back to career averages after taking a huge leap in 2020 which probably calmed some fears in the Texas Rangers front office.
Despite a small sample size, Kennedy is giving up the least amount of hits per nine innings for his entire MLB career (6.8) and his strikeouts per nine innings (11.3) are back in double digits after seeing a slight drop during 2020. In Kennedy’s first full season as a reliever with the Royals in 2019, Kennedy fared very well. Over 63 ⅓ innings, Kennedy 30 saves across 63 appearances while striking out 73 and only walking 17. Despite Kennedy’s good season as a reliever, he took a step back in 2020. COVID was no excuse for his performance although it may have been a bit lackluster. Kennedy is now back and reinventing himself as a 36-year-old reliever for the last-place Texas Rangers.
The 36-year-old veteran is the oldest player to be named one of the five surprising pitchers in 2021.
Alex Reyes, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
This 26-year-old righty has been absolutely unhittable this year. Across 21 innings, Reyes has only surrendered 8 hits compared to allowing 14 hits in 19 ⅔ innings pitched in 2020. Interestingly, Reyes has put up these stellar numbers despite an uptick in BB/9 (6.4 in 2020 and 8.1 in 2021) and a slight dip in his K/9 ratio.
Reyes was solid in his age-25 2020 season. He finished the year by only allowing 7 earned runs (10 total) while striking out 27 and walking 14 for the St. Louis Cardinals. Entering this year, Reyes has taken on a more meaningful role and has finished all 19 games he appeared in thus far while striking out 28 and amassing 11 saves over 21 innings. He wasn’t all that bad last year but his step forward this year has been tremendous. Reyes’ Cardinals currently sit in first place in the NL Central with a 23-18 record.
Although Reyes has had a stellar season, his faltering command is a sign of things to come; possibly. I would not be surprised to see Reyes come back to Earth especially since he’s allowing walks at a much more frequent rate than his previous three seasons in the major leagues.
Reyes becomes another reliever to be added to the five surprising MLB pitchers in 2021.
Aaron Civale, SP, Cleveland Indians
Aaron Civale started his career off strong for the Indians but took a step back last year. This year, however, it appears Civale is not a one-season wonder and instead will be a formidable starting pitcher for years to come in Cleveland.
Across eight starts, Civale has racked up 39 strikeouts and 15 walks, almost matching his walk total from 2020 (15 starts). Civale has seen his command drop but the results are still there. Not only has his command suffered but Civale is striking out batters at a rate less than we are used to with him. In 2019, Civale struck out 7.2 batters per nine innings, 8.4 batters per nine innings in 2020, and this year he has seen that ratio drop to only 6.6 batters per nine innings.
Most likely contributing to his success this year is an increased groundball rate and a decreased flyball rate for Civale ensuring he is keeping the ball in the park. His groundball rate is 49% which is a career-high and up from 45% last year. Further, his fly ball rate has dropped each year in the majors starting with 26.2% in 2019 and dropping to 19.6% this year.
Next. The Under appreciated Joey Votto. dark
Civale is not going to light the league on fire but he is turning into a solid mid-rotation for the Indians. After a bit of a struggle last year, Civale is showing he can pitch around subpar command and keep the ball in the park which gives his team a chance to win each time he takes the mound. He deserves to be one of the five most surprising MLB pitchers in 2021.