Aaron Civale, SP, Cleveland Indians
Aaron Civale started his career off strong for the Indians but took a step back last year. This year, however, it appears Civale is not a one-season wonder and instead will be a formidable starting pitcher for years to come in Cleveland.
Across eight starts, Civale has racked up 39 strikeouts and 15 walks, almost matching his walk total from 2020 (15 starts). Civale has seen his command drop but the results are still there. Not only has his command suffered but Civale is striking out batters at a rate less than we are used to with him. In 2019, Civale struck out 7.2 batters per nine innings, 8.4 batters per nine innings in 2020, and this year he has seen that ratio drop to only 6.6 batters per nine innings.
Most likely contributing to his success this year is an increased groundball rate and a decreased flyball rate for Civale ensuring he is keeping the ball in the park. His groundball rate is 49% which is a career-high and up from 45% last year. Further, his fly ball rate has dropped each year in the majors starting with 26.2% in 2019 and dropping to 19.6% this year.
Civale is not going to light the league on fire but he is turning into a solid mid-rotation for the Indians. After a bit of a struggle last year, Civale is showing he can pitch around subpar command and keep the ball in the park which gives his team a chance to win each time he takes the mound. He deserves to be one of the five most surprising MLB pitchers in 2021.