What Do the Cellar Dwellers Do?
While the random search for days with even one .500 team dragged on a bit, the last-place teams’ performance came under scrutiny. What do those teams trailing their divisional competition do in terms of core-five RBI? Is there a definable floor at the MLB level for “bad” teams, or could their core-five groups be, perhaps, more various?
And if that’s the case, is an average last-place team’s Core-Five Production (C5P and TC5P) less meaningful than those figures for better teams, or to put that another way, is their last-place rank more affected by poor defense and pitching?
The Results (May 23 – May 27 – seven teams again, two teams chosen one day, two others chosen the 27th from the remaining division needed and another on a coin flip between Texas and Detroit, the only two last-place teams different from those chosen from their divisions earlier):
Team C5P
BAL 0.56 (0)
PIT 0.42 (2)
MIN 0.55 (3)
LAA 0.58 (0)
WAS 0.53 (1)
ARI 0.56 (2)
TEX 0.57 (0)
This yields a C5P of 0.538 and a TC5P of 2.690.
Thus, the difference between first place teams and last place teams is a mere 0.310 RBI per core-five group per game. The .500 teams, as it turns out, produce a mere 0.145 core-five RBI per game more than the last-place teams, and trail the first-place teams by only 0.165. And what can be made of the unqualified player snapshots? You got me.
Useless study?
Maybe not. The range between a very good pitcher’s WHIP and the one posted by a very bad one is only about 0.40 or 0.50, and yet that figure is probably on the scoreboard in an MLB park near you.
And C5P and TC5P are far more team measures than WHIP. However, at least early in the season the figures are not exactly predictive of success.
But what we kind of know now is that if your team’s core-five drives in 3.5 runs every game, that team is likely at least a .500 team. Likewise, if you’re stuck at .500 instead of being in first place, you likely have injury, pitching, or defense problems.
If, however, your team’s core-five are driving in fewer than 2.5 runs a game, you could be watching a first-place, .500, or last-place team.
If your core-five RBI men are driving in between 2.5 runs and 3.0 runs a game, and you’re not happy with that team, you’re back to defense, pitching, or injury problems. Your offense is just like everybody else’s.
Or, maybe, in a more muscular offensive season, the range between a last-place and first-place core-five RBI would spread out. How about a TC5P of 2.8 to 3.8, people? Start swinging at the good pitches, guys.