Has the Phillies’ Aaron Nola already passed his peak year?

He has become a quotable tweet, “an enigma wrapped in a mystery wrapped in a tortilla.” Despite six consecutive seasons as the most accomplished player on the Philadelphia Phillies, the proper place of Aaron Nola in MLB history or his team’s history has become somewhat unclear. Call it The Curse of a .500 Team, a term the Phillies have embraced like two ’50s movie stars in a romantic comedy’s last scene.

On June 1, however, Aaron Nola climbed at least a couple of rungs higher on the Phillies’ ladder by becoming the fastest pitcher in team history to reach 1000 strikeouts (in 913 innings, passing Cole Hamels, who took 1046.2 frames).

Despite his setting an all-time Phillies record, some are disappointed in Aaron Nola.

The Baton Rouge native joined Hamels and Steve Carlton as the three Phils to reach the 1000-K milestone before the age of 28. That he accomplished this while striking out only two batters and during a Phillies rout of the Reds by 17-3 is a matter of double poetic justice.

I’ll leave it to you to count the games in his career that Nola struck out nine or more – three innings worth – but took a loss or a no-decision. There’s been one so far this year; there were two last season. There, you’re started.

Still, there has been a slight sense of disappointment with the right-hander among Phillies fans for more than a season now (although in last year’s weird campaign he garnered enough Cy Young votes to come in seventh in that “contest.”) He hasn’t been quite as sharp in terms of location as he seemed to be in 2017 and ’18.

In the latter of those two years, he came in third in the Cy Young voting, was 17-6, and posted a 0.975 WHIP. This begs the question, “Was that the peak?” Could his best effort have occurred in his age-25 season?

Since the late start of the ’20 season, Nola has gone 9-9 for a team that has demonstrated an uncanny ability to hover near the .500 mark. Have the Phillies somehow dragged him down to their level? Philly talk-radio hosts and their callers have harped for a while now on the pitcher sliding from “ace” status to “1A,” and this is not wildly inaccurate.

Games like the one Nola threw Apr. 18 against St. Louis, a 10-strikeout shutout, and his first nine-inning complete game, seem less and less frequent.

In fact, the 17-3, record-setting win seems more the current Aaron Nola norm.  He lasted five innings and gave up three earned runs, raising his seasonal ERA 12 points to 3.84.

Will he ever return to his stellar form of a few years back?

Those who have seen Aaron Nola pitch frequently would likely answer yes, albeit guardedly. One reason is that Nola is not a pitcher who depends significantly on velocity. He has been a proper pitcher since his days at LSU, and has terrific pitches to mix, all of which move, aside from his four-seamer, some spectacularly well.

He has been durable, he outthinks hitters, and he tends to outthink broadcasters with MLB experience who make the mistake of trying to predict what he’ll throw.

A betting man could do worse than putting a little money on Aaron Nola one season eclipsing his 2018 campaign, and probably pitching well until he’s 38 or 39. Even on the Phillies.