The Francisco Lindor trade: An early reassessment

When the Francisco Lindor deal went down in early January, it was universally interpreted as a bold challenge by the New York Mets to the Atlanta Braves’ three-season hegemony over the National League East.

And since Lindor was at the time projected to be a free agent at season’s end, it was also something of a win-now-or-else gamble.

Revisiting the New York Mets trade for Francisco Lindor

That second issue was quickly resolved when Lindor signed a $340 million deal that commits him to Queens through 2031.

As for the first part, that’s looking favorable for the moment, although subject to change on short notice. Lindor’s Mets are indeed in first place in the NL East, three and one-half games ahead of the Braves.

How much of that could be attributed to Lindor’s presence at shortstop is a fair subject for debate.

The full deal sent Lindor and starter Carlos Carrasco from Cleveland to the Mets in exchange for a pair of young major leaguers, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, plus two minor leaguers, Isaiah Greene and Josh Wolf.

One-third of the way through the 2021 season, how’s it working out?

Well, the Mets are in first place with Lindor as the middle infield anchor. Could a Mets fan ask for any more than that? Yes, probably.

Lindor’s offensive numbers have been lackluster. He’s batting .217 with a modest .629 OPS in 213 plate appearances. Combine that with his expected strong defense and it adds up to a 1.1 WAR, which projects to about 3.3 WAR by season’s end.

If that’s all Lindor contributes, it would be the worst full season of his career. His previous worst full-season WAR, 4.0, came as a rookie in 2015.

Still, it’s probably better than what the Mets could have projected to get out of a tandem of Gimenez and Rosario. Given a chance to play somewhat regularly in Cleveland, Rosario is averaging .247 and Gimenez .263, with a combined 0.8 WAR.

Of course, had the Mets not traded for Lindor, they would have had both a shortstop and an outfielder, giving them one extra healthy body. In this injury-depleted season, that extra body might have come in useful. Who knew?

Short-term, the wild card in the deal may end up being Carrasco. A 34-year-old veteran with a history of being injured, he has run true to form in that category. Injured in pre-season, he has yet to make his Mets debut and it is not entirely clear when he will. If he returns and if he pitches to his best Cleveland form – two big ifs – he could be a big boost in a pennant run.

The short-term question also has to be asked whether the Indians made a smart move in trading away Lindor. At this one-third point, they are second in the AL Central four games behind the Chicago White Sox. They are not presently in a post-season position, but they are by record the first alternate.

Whether Lindor could have been the difference in that potential playoff run – and whether such a run would have been worth losing Lindor for nothing at season’s end – are both fair points for speculation.

The potential long-term impact of the trade is, as always, murky. It hinges primarily on what Lindor gives the Mets over the next decade, but also on an entire series of delicious speculations.

• What, if anything, does Carrasco provide the rest of this year and through 2023, when he becomes a free agent? (Until then the Mets owe him $27 million.)
• Do either Gimenez or Rosario develop into valuable everyday players?
• Do either Wolf or Greene ever emerge from the Cleveland farm system? Wolf, rated the system’s No. 10 prospect, is having a bad year in Class A, while Greene’s Rookie League season has not yet begun.

But the eventual judgment of this trade will primarily rise or fall on whether the New York Mets play a post-season game, and the extent to which Lindor aids that effort. By that criteria, the trade is at this early date a win, although only a tentative one, for the Mets.