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2021 MLB Draft: Predicting first five picks

By David Mullen

OMAHA, NE - JUNE 25: Pitcher Kumar Rocker #80 of the Vanderbilt Commodores delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Michigan Wolverines during game two of the College World Series Championship Series on June 25, 2019 at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images)
OMAHA, NE - JUNE 25: Pitcher Kumar Rocker #80 of the Vanderbilt Commodores delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Michigan Wolverines during game two of the College World Series Championship Series on June 25, 2019 at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images) /
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Kumar Rocker, MLB Draft
OMAHA, NE – JUNE 25: Pitcher Kumar Rocker #80 of the Vanderbilt Commodores delivers a pitch in the second inning against the Michigan Wolverines during game two of the College World Series Championship Series on June 25, 2019 at TD Ameritrade Park Omaha in Omaha, Nebraska. (Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images) /

The 2021 MLB Draft is under a month away and all eyes are on the top prospects available this year.

Let’s get right into it and look at five players expected to go off the board right away.

Pick No. 1 – Pittsburgh Pirates: Kumar Rocker, Pitcher, Vanderbilt

Originally drafted in the 38th round of the 2018 MLB Draft, Kumar Rocker made the correct decision by honoring his commitment to Vanderbilt. He will, undoubtedly, be a top-5 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and possibly the first pick overall following his dominant career with the Commodores.

Over three years in Nashville, Rocker has accumulated 297 strikeouts and only 65 walks. In 2021, Rocker has averaged about 13 strikeouts per nine innings which is slightly above his career average of 12 strikeouts per nine innings. Specifically, Rocker has an astronomical 155 strikeouts in 106 innings this year.

With any draft there are ups and downs. Rocker experienced some velocity issues in the year but, with his last few starts in the NCAA Baseball Tournament, Rocker may have put those questions to rest. About a month ago, Kevin Goldstein at FanGraphs wrote up Rocker’s “velocity roller coaster”, utilizing very good data to illustrate the variance in velocity from start to start.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have not had much luck with pitchers selected in the first round. Although, that could turn around when we find out what Carmen Mlodzinski and Quinn Priester can do. The Pirates have not had much success with first-round picks in general with the exception of Ke’Bryan Hayes in 2015.

Last year, the Pirates selected shortstop Nick Gonzalez with the No. 7 overall pick after going with pitching the previous two years (Mlodzinski and Priester). Pitching wins championships and an organization can never have enough arms. It would be a travesty if the Pirates did not select Rocker or teammate Jack Leiter with the lack of superstar position players eligible for the draft this year.

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