2021 MLB Draft: Predicting first five picks

The 2021 MLB Draft is under a month away and all eyes are on the top prospects available this year.

Let’s get right into it and look at five players expected to go off the board right away.

Pick No. 1 – Pittsburgh Pirates: Kumar Rocker, Pitcher, Vanderbilt

Originally drafted in the 38th round of the 2018 MLB Draft, Kumar Rocker made the correct decision by honoring his commitment to Vanderbilt. He will, undoubtedly, be a top-5 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft and possibly the first pick overall following his dominant career with the Commodores.

Over three years in Nashville, Rocker has accumulated 297 strikeouts and only 65 walks. In 2021, Rocker has averaged about 13 strikeouts per nine innings which is slightly above his career average of 12 strikeouts per nine innings. Specifically, Rocker has an astronomical 155 strikeouts in 106 innings this year.

With any draft there are ups and downs. Rocker experienced some velocity issues in the year but, with his last few starts in the NCAA Baseball Tournament, Rocker may have put those questions to rest. About a month ago, Kevin Goldstein at FanGraphs wrote up Rocker’s “velocity roller coaster”, utilizing very good data to illustrate the variance in velocity from start to start.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have not had much luck with pitchers selected in the first round. Although, that could turn around when we find out what Carmen Mlodzinski and Quinn Priester can do. The Pirates have not had much success with first-round picks in general with the exception of Ke’Bryan Hayes in 2015.

Last year, the Pirates selected shortstop Nick Gonzalez with the No. 7 overall pick after going with pitching the previous two years (Mlodzinski and Priester). Pitching wins championships and an organization can never have enough arms. It would be a travesty if the Pirates did not select Rocker or teammate Jack Leiter with the lack of superstar position players eligible for the draft this year.

Pick No. 2 – Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, Pitcher, Vanderbilt

Another Vanderbilt pitcher. Another first-round pick. This time it is the son of a former Major League Baseball pitcher; Jack Leiter. Leiter, like his teammate Rocker, was previously selected in the MLB Amateur Draft; the 20th round in 2019. However, like Rocker, Leiter came to Tim Corbin and Vanderbilt.

It has paid off dramatically for Jack as he is a consensus first-round pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. In the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Leiter finished with 22 strikeouts and 8 walks in only 15.2 innings pitched. This year, Leiter has struck out 156 batters, walking 41 in 96 innings featuring four pitches including one of the best fastballs in the draft as well as a slider, changeup, and curveball.

Prior to the season and even into the season, Leiter was the consensus number one pick. Leiter added a no-hitter to his resume by shutting down the University of South Carolina. Most mock drafts cross the industry have Leiter dropping to four. A team passing up an extremely good pitcher for a position player does not seem like it’s in the cards especially in a draft lacking potential superstar position players.

In the last three drafts, the Texas Rangers have selected an infielder with their first-round pick. Third basemen Davis Wendzel was drafted in 2019 out of Baylor University along with Josh Jung in 2019 with the No. 8 overall pick. Last year, the Rangers selected Mississippi State University second basemen Justin Foscue. In fact, they’ve drafted only one pitcher with their last six picks. Leiter would be a perfect fit for their rebuild.

Pick No. 3 – Detroit Tigers: Henry Davis, Catcher, Louisville 

Henry Davis can hit. And hit. And hit. And hit. Over three seasons with the Louisville Cardinals, Davis accumulated a slash line of .337/.435/1.001 with 21 home runs. 15 of his 21 home runs came this year; a year in which Davis turned the corner and made a play for the number one pick.

Offensively, Davis’ numbers surged across the board with career highs in runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, walks, and stolen bases.

Defensively, Davis needs some work on most tools with the exception of his arm. Despite a plus-plus arm, scouts have questioned his ability to receive and his athleticism which begs the question; could Davis see a position change in the future? A corner outfield spot would not be out of the realm of possibility. This would enable Davis’ team to maximize his bat without suffering too much defensively. Davis will, most definitely, be a top-5 pick in the 2021 MLB Draft.

After drafting four straight pitchers from 2015-2018, the Detroit Tigers have been on a position player shopping spree. In 2019, they used the fifth overall pick on Riley Greene followed by the first overall pick in 2020 on Arizona State University third basemen Spencer Torkelson.

Pick No. 4 – Boston Red Sox: Jordan Lawlar, Shortstop, Jesuit College Prep

Jordan Lawlar may be the first high school player off the board or he may be the second depending on teams’ thoughts about fellow shortstop Marcelo Mayer. Lawlar, a Texas native, is considered a five-tool shortstop.

Complicating his 2021 MLB Draft is the fact that he has committed to Vanderbilt University. Therefore, Lawlar, if monetary demands are not met or the fit is not right, has a very good backup plan for his baseball career.

Lawlar has consistently been compared to 2019 draftee Bobby Witt Jr. Not only does Lawlar have an arm to stick at shortstop but his athleticism is plus-plus, as well, contributing to his possible longevity at shortstop. After studying some of his videos, it is clear Lawlar is not a one-trick hitter.

He can hit for power. He can hit line drives and he uses every part of the field. Scouts have said, even in the face of his defensive prowess, his offense may be his best tool. It is definitely his most advanced right now. Lawlar currently measures in at 6-foot-2, 190 pounds, which gives him room to add muscle and increase his power.

Teams drafting Lawlar are getting a five-star shortstop and a great kid (straight A student) with a high ceiling. By drafting Lawlar, the Boston Red Sox could have their infield of the future set. In 2020, the Red Sox drafted high school second basement Nick Yorke in the first round. In 2018, they used their first-round pick on another prep infielder in Triston Casas. Casas, drafted as a third basemen, has made the transition to first base and continues to rake in the minors.