Chicago Cubs: The All Star case for Kyle Hendricks

They won’t believe this in Atlanta. But it’s time to give Chicago Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks some serious dap. It’s also time to give him All Star consideration.

On Tuesday night at Wrigley Field, Hendricks shut out the Cleveland Indians on four hits across six innings in a 7-1 Cubs victory. Nothing new there; the Chicago ace leads the majors in victories with 10 this season.

Chicago Cubs pitcher Kyle Hendricks has an interesting All Star case

Through 15 starts, Hendricks has a 3.84 ERA. That’s nice, but relatively ordinary over the course of the season. Look deeper, however, and his true value to the Cubs comes shining through.

The Cubs ace’s 2021 numbers are seriously colored by two April performances against the same team. Within 10 days that month, Hendricks started two games against the Braves, lasting less than eight innings and being lit up for 14 earned runs, with seven home runs.

Those two unlikely starts against the same team two months ago continue to have a residual impact on the season-long stats. Consider what his record looks like against every other team.

In his 13 starts against anybody but the Braves, Hendricks is 10-2 with a 2.62 ERA. That’s on course to be his best season since 2016, when Hendricks won the ERA title at 2.13 and helped pitch the Cubs to their World Series win.

In those 13 starts, he’s walked just 14 batters while striking out 65 with a 1.11 WHIP.

Hendricks’ May-June record has been even better. Since May 1 he’s 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA, having walked just nine with 49 strikeouts. That’s a 1.08 WHIP.

And he hasn’t done it against softies. Since May 1 Hendricks has beaten the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Mets and Indians, all of them in playoff contention. Five of those 10 starts followed Cubs defeats; he is 5-0 in potential slump-stoppers.

The Chicago Cubs are 11-10 in June, but it could be much worse. When Hendricks starts they are 5-0; with any other starter on the mound they are just 6-10. Far more importantly, they are not tied for first place in the NL Central without Hendricks.

Given his career numbers – 27 games over .500, a 3.17 ERA in more than 1,000 innings, two top 10 Cy Young placings – it’s difficult to understand why Hendricks has not yet made an All Star team. Perhaps his reputation as one of the softest of soft-tossers contributes to a false impression that he is not an imposing opponent.

What Hendricks has mastered is steadiness. For the duration of his career, opponents are batting .242 with nobody on base, .239 with a runner or runners on base, and .238 with a runner or runners in scoring position. In the late stages of close games, he has allowed a .208 average and .576 career OPS.  In high-leverage situations, the batting average against Hendricks is .235.

In short, nothing seems to phase him. Nothing, perhaps, except the site of a Braves uniform. In seven career starts against Atlanta, the Braves are batting .328 with a .997 OPS.

The next best numbers against Hendricks by a National League team belong to the Cincinnati Reds. They are 65 and 154 percentage points lower respectively.

The only Braves at the All Star Game will be on Hendricks’ side. It’s time he was picked to be on that team.