Minnesota Twins: 3 Jose Berrios trade destinations

The Minnesota Twins entered the 2021 season with high expectations. Those expectations have not come close to being met.  The Twins are currently 11 games below .500 and are more interested in being sellers at the trade deadline rather than buyers.

Over the course of the first half of the season, the Twins have experienced injuries to some major players in their lineup including starting catcher Mitch Garver, starting center fielder Byron Buxton, as well as outfielder Kyle Garlick and utility man Willians Astudillo. On the pitching side of the team, the Twins have experienced subpar performance and injuries to starting pitcher Michael Pineda.

Starting pitcher Jose Berrios has been the anchor of the starting rotation especially with Pineda out. Coincidentally, these two pitchers are the only Twins pitchers with an ERA+ over 100. The next closest pitcher deemed to be average (100) by the ERA+ metric is Bailey Ober. In five starts, Ober is still 11 points away from being an average major league starter.

In the middle of a subpar season with some young pieces to build on, the Twins will need to be sellers at the trade deadline in order to acquire a plethora of assets to help them long term. Berrios is the best asset for the Twins to trade. He can help a contending team solidify their starting rotation at the young age of 27 and the acquiring team would have two more years of control.

In 2018 and 2019, Berrios was an All-Star and nearly reached the 200 innings pitched mark twice in a row (192.1 in 2018 and 200.1 in 2019). Further, Berrios is having his best season since 2019 when he accumulated a 122 ERA+ as well as a 195/51 K/BB ratio. The difference between 2021 and 2019 is Jose Berrios is striking out batters at a higher rate in 2021 (9.6 K/9 compared to 8.8 K/9).

Berrios has made a slight change in the last year as far as pitch selection. During the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Berrios threw his fastball 51.5 percent of the time, curveball 29.8 percent, and changeup 18.8 percent. This year, his fastball usage has increased by about five percent, curveball usage increased by almost two percent, and his changeup has experienced the biggest dip; a six percent decrease in usage.

His peripheral statistics have not changed much despite the change in pitch selection. Either way, a team trading for Berrios is picking up a young starter with the possibility to fit in to a number two or three role right away and into the playoffs.

Here are three teams that should be calling about a Berrios deal.

The Seattle Mariners could add Berrios if they are finally serious about contending for the playoffs. Despite being in a division and behind the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics, the Mariners have a chance to acquire a pitcher to help them this year and at least two years from now while maintaining a young core throughout the major league roster.

The Mariners have young and solid pitching depth with Yusei Kikuchi (30 years old), Justus Sheffield (25 years old) Logan Gilbert (24 years old), Justin Dunn (25 years old), Chris Flexen (26 years old), and Marco Gonzales (29 years old). It is proven, over and over, that a team can absolutely never have enough pitching depth. Right now, the Mariners are dealing with injuries to Dunn (10-day IL) and staff ace Gonzales is out on the paternity list but has dealt with injuries this year.

The Mariners, despite their young pitching staff, have one of the worst staffs with a 93 ERA+, which is good for sixth worst in all of the major leagues. In just about every pitching category, the Mariners are below league average.

The Mariners’ FIP sits at 4.24 which is just above the league average of 4.12. The same goes for WHIP where the Mariners are at 1.281 while the league average is 1.277. Therefore, an addition of Berrios would, statistically, push the Mariners to be a better than league average starting rotation, but it would contribute to more wins for a team chasing the American League West division title.

To make this situation better for the Mariners, they currently have one of the best and deepest farm systems. For 2022, the Mariners only have about $44 million committed to their team with club options for Kyle Seager ($15 million) and starting pitcher Kikuchi ($14.5 million) which, if not exercised, would free up room to sign Berrios long term.

The Toronto Blue Jays are another team in contention and could use a late 20s, solid starting pitcher. The Blue Jays are just a tad better than the league average in a few key statistical pitching categories.

The Blue Jays’ WHIP is 1.257 which is a tick better than the league average of 1.277. However, a solid indicator of how good a pitching staff is ERA+ and the Blue Jays are in top 10 territory with a 116. The league-leading Mets are offset and assisted by Jacob deGrom’s insanely good season. The Blue Jays (40-36) are six games back from the first-place Boston Red Sox and 5.5 games behind the second-place Tampa Bay Rays.

The Blue Jays are another team where if you look at their staff on paper, you may say they do not need another pitcher. However, with injuries and the unknown, you will always be able to find a spot for an above average starting pitcher.

The Blue Jays could also include one of their older starting pitchers in the deal such as a Ross Stripling (31 years old) or Steven Matz (30 years old), when healthy. Now, Stripling and Matz exclusively will not get the deal done but it could assist in opening a spot in the rotation and to create some payroll flexibility for the future.

Matz is playing on a one-year deal and will be a free agent at the end of 2021. Stripling, on the other hand, is arbitration-eligible and will receive a raise from his current salary of $3 million. Stripling will not be a free agent until 2023, making him a bit more attractive in a possible trade.

By trading for Berrios, the Blue Jays improve their starting rotation, become a younger starting rotation, and have the opportunity to sign a number two or three hole starting pitcher long term to compete with Vlad Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette for years to come.