The halfway point of the 2021 MLB season is also an appropriate time to offer a mid-term assessment of the team-building strategies of Major League general managers.
Today: The American League Central.
Assessing the AL Central GMs at the midway point of the MLB season
We’re assessing GM performance based on the short-term impact of all personnel moves made since the conclusion of the 2020 season. Our rating standard is Wins Above Average, a variant of Wins Above Replacement that is superior for this purpose because it is zero-based.
That means each GM’s score approximately replicates the number of games he has influenced his team’s standing, either for better or for worse, by dint of what he has done to the roster.
Collectively, the AL Central has been a weak divisional sister through the first three months of 2021. AL Central teams enter play Friday a combined 14 games below .500, with only the Chicago White Sox producing a positive run differential.
Of course, much of each GM’s work remains to be accomplished. With the July 31 trade deadline, the second half of every season is usually more active than the first half. That means these ratings can change significantly between now and October.
As you look at these ratings, it’s also worth keeping in mind that this system is not designed to necessarily replicate each team’s standing in the race. Rather, it is designed to estimate how much of an impact each GM has had. In theory, that means a GM of a bad team could generate a positive score by modestly improving what was a poor talent base, while the GM of a good team might generate a negative score by making only a few unproductive moves to what was initially a very strong ballclub.
With that said, here are the mid-term ratings for the five AL Central general managers.