MLB: Assessing the AL Central GMs at the midway point

The halfway point of the 2021 MLB season is also an appropriate time to offer a mid-term assessment of the team-building strategies of Major League general managers.

Today: The American League Central.

Assessing the AL Central GMs at the midway point of the MLB season

We’re assessing GM performance based on the short-term impact of all personnel moves made since the conclusion of the 2020 season. Our rating standard is Wins Above Average, a variant of Wins Above Replacement that is superior for this purpose because it is zero-based.

That means each GM’s score approximately replicates the number of games he has influenced his team’s standing, either for better or for worse, by dint of what he has done to the roster.

Collectively, the AL Central has been a weak divisional sister through the first three months of 2021. AL Central teams enter play Friday a combined 14 games below .500, with only the Chicago White Sox producing a positive run differential.

Of course, much of each GM’s work remains to be accomplished. With the July 31 trade deadline, the second half of every season is usually more active than the first half. That means these ratings can change significantly between now and October.

As you look at these ratings, it’s also worth keeping in mind that this system is not designed to necessarily replicate each team’s standing in the race. Rather, it is designed to estimate how much of an impact each GM has had. In theory, that means a GM of a bad team could generate a positive score by modestly improving what was a poor talent base, while the GM of a good team might generate a negative score by making only a few unproductive moves to what was initially a very strong ballclub.

With that said, here are the mid-term ratings for the five AL Central general managers.

Chicago White Sox, Rick Hahn, +6.2 games.

The White Sox entered play Friday with a five-game advantage over Cleveland in the AL Central race, and Hahn gets a lot of the credit for it.

Although Chicago was a popular, if not consensus, preseason choice to reach the MLB postseason, that popularity was to a significant degree built on players who have delivered little or nothing in 2021. Eloy Jimenez, seen as a star-in-the-making in the outfield, has not played an inning due to injuries.

The injury bug has also sidelined second-year outfielder Luis Robert for much of the year. Second baseman Nick Madrigal is also out for the rest of the season with an injury.

That these problems have not slowed down the Sox is a testament to the work Hahn did over the winter. Here’s a recap of his most significant moves along with the values (expressed in Wins Above Average) of those moves:

• Traded for starter Lance Lynn (+1.9) from Texas in exchange for pitching prospect Dane Dunning (+0.4) and a minor leaguer. Net gain: +1.5 games.
• Signed free agent closer Liam Hendriks (+0.6).
• Released and then re-signed starter Carlos Rodon (+2.4) to a one-year, $3 million deal. As a fourth-year arbitration eligible, Rodon probably would have cost more than that had Chicago not risked losing him on the open market, and that gamble paid off when Rodon accepted Hahn’s proposal to come back at what was very likely to be a lower salary.
• Saw rookie starter Michael Kopech (+0.9) blossom in his return from arm surgery.

The mid-term report has Chicago more than six games better off so far in 2021 than the Sox would have been without Hahn’s various personnel moves.

Detroit Tigers, Al Avila, -2.9 games

Avila’s personnel moves haven’t improved the Tigers’ short-term MLB talent profile since 2016, his second season at the helm of the team’s front office. They’re not likely to in 2021, either.

Since the start of the winter 2020-21 maneuvering season, Avila has made 16 statistically impactful personnel acquisitions, almost all of them involving little-known fringe assets. The most visible involved the signing of veteran free agent Robbie Grossman. He’s having a nice season by Tigers standards, with 10 home runs and a .717 OPS. But that’s still only translated to +0.2 games of value as expressed by WAA.

Multiply that insignificance by 16 and you begin to get a feel for why the Tigers have actually done fairly well merely to crawl up to third place in a mediocre division. To that end, Avila has so far gotten a major assist from his fellow AL Central GMs, most of whom are also having sub-par seasons.

Aside from the Grossman signing, here are Avila’s most significant moves in re-shaping the 2021 Tigers.

• Signed free agent pitchers Jose Urena (-1.0) and Derek Holland (-0.8), free agent catcher Wilson Ramos (-0.6), and free agent outfielder Nomar Mazara (-0.9). Total impact on Detroit: -3.3.
• Drafted outfielder Akil Baddoo (+0.7) from the Minnesota Twins organization.
• Promoted rookie pitcher Alex Lange (-0.6).
• Released C.J. Cron (+0.5 for the Colorado Rockies).

Cleveland Indians, Michael Chernoff, -4.4 games

The Indians remain in touch in a generally bad AL Central, five games behind Chicago. Considering that the club’s biggest winter move was divesting itself of star, shortstop Francisco Lindor, the -4.4 game rating is about what would be expected.

In return for Lindor, Chernoff got two players — Andres Gimenez (0.0) and Amed Rosario (-0.4) — neither of whom has made a statistical mark to date.

There remains time to turn things around, and of course, some moves are designed to pay off in the long haul rather than immediately. Thus far, however, the numbers say Chernoff did little to help Cleveland in 2021.

Here are his most significant moves:

• Trading Francisco Lindor (+0.4 for the Mets) in exchange for Andres Gimenez (0.0), Amed Rosario (-0.4), and two minor leaguers. Net impact on Cleveland: -0.8 games.
• Promoting rookie pitchers Eli Morgan (-0.7), Sam Hentges (-0.7), J.C. Mejia (-0.6), and Nick Sandlin (+0.5). Net impact on Cleveland: -1.5.
• Promoting rookie first baseman Yu Chang (-1.0).
• Signing free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario. Net impact: -0.7.

To date, Chernoff has made 17 player acquisitions and forced seven departures of statistical significance to the Indians since the beginning of the 2020-21 offseason. Only seven of those moves, however, have produced positive short-term value, none of those values being greater than Sandlin’s +0.5.

Minnesota Twins, Thad Levine, -8.5 games.

Since the Twins, a preseason division challenger to the White Sox, are sitting 13 games below .500, they’re obviously one of MLB’s major disappointments.

With a team-rattling 26 personnel additions of statistical significance — only six of which have produced positive value — Levine has to end up taking some of the fall.

The only truly useful move has been the re-signing of 41-year-old Nelson Cruz (+1.2) for another year. Cruz is sitting on a .310 average and 18 home runs. The addition of free agent shortstop Andrelton Simmons (+0.2) has been s modestly positive, if hardly transformative, move.

Other than that, pretty much everything Levine has touched has turned to dirt. Here’s a recap.

He acquired pitchers Shaun Anderson (-0.7) and Brandon Waddell (-0.4) on waiver claims from Texas and Pittsburgh respectively.  Waddell has since been forwarded to Baltimore and St. Louis, producing a combined +0.2 value for those teams. Net impact on Minnesota: -1.3.

He signed veteran free agent pitchers J.A. Happ (-1.3) and Matt Shoemaker (-2.3) along with veteran reliever Alex Colome (-1.1). Net impact: -4.7.

He signed pitcher Randy Dobnak (-1.6) to a five-year, $9.25 million. Since signing that deal in March, Dobnak is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA.

He has promoted 11 first-year players for all or part of 2021, eight of whom have produced negative values to the Twins. The two most frequently used are pitcher Bailey Ober (-0.3) and outfielder Trevor Larnach (+0.1). Net impact: -2.8.