MLB: Assessing the NL East GMs at the midway point

The halfway point of the 2021 MLB season is also an appropriate time to offer a mid-term assessment of the team-building strategies of Major League general managers.

Today: The National League East.

Assessing the NL East GMs at the midway point of the MLB season

It’s an interesting division in part because these mid-term ratings don’t necessarily follow the MLB standings. That’s not unusual. This ratings system is designed to estimate how much of an impact each GM has had. In theory, that means a GM of a bad team could generate a positive score by modestly improving what was a poor talent base, while the GM of a good team might generate a negative score by making only a few unproductive moves to what was initially a very strong ballclub.

We’re assessing GM performance based on the short-term impact of all personnel moves made since the conclusion of the 2020 season. Our rating standard is Wins Above Average, a variant of Wins Above Replacement that is superior for this purpose because it is zero-based.

That means each GM’s score approximately replicates the number of games he has influenced his team’s standing, either for better or for worse, by dint of what he has done to the roster.

Collectively, the NL East has been an ordinary division through the first three months of 2021. They enter play Saturday a collective 10 games under .500, with none of the teams in serious contention for a post-season wild card.

Of course much of each GM’s work remains to be accomplished. With the July 31 trade deadline, the second half of every season is usually more active than the first half. That means these ratings can change significantly between now and October.

With that said, here are the mid-term ratings for the five NL East general managers.

Miami Marlins, Kim Ng, +1.6 games.

Do not be fooled by Miami’s 2020 playoff run. That had everything to do with the Covid-inspired expanded MLB postseason setup plus more than a bit of luck, given the team’s minus-41 run differential.

The reality is the game’s first female general manager inherited a weak talent base from her predecessor, Michael Hill. She’s at least laid the groundwork for a talent infusion, and if that hasn’t shown up in the standings – the Marlins are last in the NL East – well, things sometimes take time.

Ng has brought in 19 new or relatively new faces and unburdened the Marlins of eight others who have caught on with other major league teams. About half of those transactions have improved Miami’s talent base, a percentage most GMs would accept in a heartbeat.

If she has found a nugget in any of those deals, it has been reliever Anthony Bender. A 26-year-old rookie signed as a free agent after flopped trials with Kansas City and Milwaukee, Bender (+0.8) has a 0.81 ERA in 22 appearances.

Here’s a look at the impact of some of Ng’s other moves.

• She released veteran pitchers Jose Urena (-0.9 for Detroit) and Brandon Kintzler (-0.8 for Philadelphia). Net impact on Miami: +1.7 games.
• She drafted pitcher Paul Campbell (-0.8) from the Tampa Bay system and acquired pitcher Zach Pop (-0.7) from the Arizona system for a minor leaguer. Net impact on the Marlins: -1.5 games.
• She signed veteran free agent Adam Duvall (+1.0). Duvall has been Miami’s best power source, with 18 home runs and a .751 OPS.
• She has called up seven rookies from the Miami system, none of whom have been especially impactful. The most prominent to date has been starting pitcher Cody Poteet (-0.2). Net impact on the Marlins of those callups: -1.3 games.

Philadelphia Phillies, Dave Dombrowski, -0.7

The Phillies (along with the Mets) took their front office retro in 2021, hiring Dombrowski to run the team between collecting Social Security checks. As is often the case with Dombrowski, there has been a lot of churn – 21 player arrivals or re-signings, seven departures.

The problem is the sum total of that churn doesn’t amount to much.

Dombrowski’s two boldest moves were parallel ones: setting J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius adrift on the open market over the winter, then re-signing both of them.

Bringing back Realmuto (+0.8) has been decidedly the smarter move thus far. The All Star catcher is batting .260 with a .783 OPS.

Gregorius (-1.1) has proven a less successful gamble. He’s batting just .231, one reason why he’s made only 33 starts in 2021. Gregorius finds himself splitting time with journeyman Ronald Torreyes (-0.6), a less costly free agent signee.

Here are some of Dombrowski’s other personnel moves.

• Signed veteran free agents infielder Brad Miller (-0.8), and outfielders Matt Joyce (-0.6) and Travis Jankowski (+0.4). Net impact: -1.0.
•  Signed journeymen pitchers Brandon Kintzler (-0.8), Matt Moore (-0.3), Archie Bradley (-0.1) and Chase Anderson (-0.9). Net impact: -2.1.
• Promoted nine first-year players, notably pitcher Ranger Suarez (+1.2) and outfielder Mickey Moniak (-0.3). Net impact of those promotions: +0.2.
• Let Jake Arrieta (-2.1) walk on free agency to Chicago.

New York Mets, Sandy Alderson, -1.3

Like the Phillies, the Mets brought back an oldie but goodie to run their front office, restoring Alderson to the position he had held for much of the previous decade before being ousted in favor of Brody Van Wagenen. A solid septuagenarian who makes Dombrowski look like a prodigy, Alderson also ran the Oakland A’s in the pre-Billy Beane days of the 1980s and 90s.

Alderson made early headlines with the deal in which he obtained shortstop Francisco Lindor (+0.5) from Cleveland. The Mets may be in first place in the NL East, but that deal isn’t the reason. It cost New York two major leaguers (Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez) plus two minor leaguers, and has produced a net impact on New York amounting to just +0.5 games.

In sum, Alderson has ventured into the trade market for 10 bodies with a fairly striking lack of success. Aside from Lindor, those newly acquired faces – notably Cameron Maybin, Joey Lucchesi, Shawn Reid-Foley, Jordan Yamamoto and Billy McKinney – have impacted the Mets to the collective tune of -2.6 games. Whoops…wrong direction.

Alderson has made 17 forays into the open market for talent with two solid successes. Those were the signings of starters Marcus Stroman (+1.0) and Taijuan Walker (+1.4). As the team’s Nos. 2 and 3 starters behind Jacob DeGrom, they have yielded a combined 12-9 record and 2.40 ERA.

Reliever Aaron Loup (+0.4) has also proven a productive pickup. Even factoring in those three successess, the sum total of Alderson’s free agent signings has advantaged the Mets to the tune of just +0.6 games.

The Mets have needed Loup in the pen because they cut ties with three relievers who have gone on to make positive contributions for their new teams. Those three – sorely missed in New York – are Brad Brach (+0.5 for Cincinnati), Chasen Shreve (+0.6 for Pittsburgh) and Hunter Strickland (+0.3 for the Rays, Angels and Brewers).

Atlanta Braves, Alex Anthopoulos, -5.2 games

Since coming to Atlanta in the aftermath of the Coppolella scandal of 2018, Anthopoulos has been a pretty consistent team-building genius. He has improved the Braves to an average of more than six games per MLB season.

So the collapse, both of the Braves and also of Anthopoulos, in 2021 was very much unexpected.

It is, however, easy to quantify.

Since the conclusion of the 2020 season, Anthopoulos has added 20 faces to the Braves roster who have had playing time, while subtracting eight others who found major league jobs elsewhere. Of those 28 moves, only seven have worked to the advantage of the Braves. Only the signing of veteran starter Charlie Morton (+0.9) has helped by anything approximating one game.

Most of the rest of the Anthopoulos 2021 saga is a tale of woe. He re-signed outfielder Marcell Ozuna (-0.8), coming off a fabulous 2020 campaign, only to see the outfielder tank and then get suspended for domestic abuse.

The Braves were committed to paying Ozuna $12 million this year and then another $68 million through 2025, so to an extent, there’s a bright side they may at least get out from under that contractual albatross if Ozuna does not return.

Anthopoulos tried to patch up the perennially injured Braves mound staff by signing a raft of veteran free agent journeymen. That list includes Josh Tomlin (-0.1), Drew Smyly (-0.7), Jesse Biddle (-0.4), Carl Edwards Jr. (-0.2), Shane Green (-0.6), and Nate Jones (+0.1). Aside from Morton, none have worked out. Net impact on the Braves: -1.9.

Christian Pache (-0.9) was a touted rookie likely to force his way into the team’s outfield by now. Pache batted .111 before being dispatched to the minors.

In part due to the expected arrival of Pache and the prominence of Ozuna, Anthopoulos decided the Braves had no room for outfielder Adam Duvall. Turns out they did. The problem is Duvall signed with the Marlins, where he has to date harvested 18 home runs and +0.9 Wins Above Average.