The halfway point of the 2021 MLB season is also an appropriate time to offer a mid-term assessment of the team-building strategies of Major League GMs.
Today: The National League Central.
Assessing the NL Central GMs at the midway point of the MLB season
Over the past 10 days, the division has become the game’s most turbulent. The Milwaukee Brewers ran off a long winning streak to seize the largest mid-season advantage of any division. The Chicago Cubs, in first place in mid month, now project to be trade deadline sellers. The Cincinnati Reds are showing late life, and with seven games against Milwaukee wrapped around the All Star break cannot be dismissed.
There are intimations of all of that laced throughout the mid-term ratings of NL GM performance.
We’re assessing GM performance based on the short-term impact of all personnel moves made since the conclusion of the 2020 season. Our rating standard is Wins Above Average, a variant of Wins Above Replacement that is superior for this purpose because it is zero-based.
That means each GM’s score approximately replicates the number of games he has influenced his team’s standing, either for better or for worse, by dint of what he has done to the roster.
Of course, much of each GM’s work remains to be accomplished. With the July 31 MLB trade deadline, the second half of every season is usually more active than the first half. That means these ratings can change significantly between now and October.
As you look at these ratings, it’s also worth keeping in mind that this system is not designed to necessarily replicate each team’s standing in the race. Rather, it is designed to estimate how much of an impact each GM has had since the end of last season. In theory, that means a GM of a bad team could generate a positive score by modestly improving what was a poor talent base, while the GM of a good team might generate a negative score by making only a few unproductive moves to what was already a very strong ballclub.
With that said, here are the mid-term ratings for the five NL Central general managers.