The Toronto Blue Jays are only in third place in their division, and for the moment outside a postseason berth.
Those facts, however, should not obscure the job general manager Ross Atkins has done to date. Statistically, Atkins has had the best 2021 first half of any executive in the game.
Assessing the AL East GMs at the midway point of the MLB season
Our focus in this installment assessing the work of MLB GMs is on the AL East, Atkins’ division. More on what Atkins has done to improve the Jays in a few paragraphs. First, the basics.
We’re assessing GM performance based on the short-term impact of all personnel moves made since the conclusion of the 2020 season. Our rating standard is Wins Above Average, a variant of Wins Above Replacement that is superior for this purpose because it is zero-based.
That means each GM’s score approximately replicates the number of games he has influenced his team’s standing, either for better or for worse, by dint of what he has done to the roster.
Collectively, the AL East has been a strong division. Through games of Friday, four of its five teams are over .500, and the division as a group is 11 games to the good. It shows up in the rating of the division’s GMs, who are a collective 6.9 games ahead of their MLB peers.
Of course, much of each GM’s work remains to be accomplished. With the July 31 trade deadline, the second half of every season is usually more active than the first half. That means these ratings can change significantly between now and October.
As you look at these ratings, it’s also worth keeping in mind that this system is not designed to necessarily replicate each team’s standing in the race. Rather, it is designed to estimate how much of an impact each GM has had. In theory, that means a GM of a bad team could generate a positive score by modestly improving what was a poor talent base, while the GM of a good team might generate a negative score by making only a few unproductive moves to what was initially a very strong ballclub.
With that said, here are the mid-term ratings for the five AL East general managers.