MLB: Ross Atkins clear head of AL East general managers

The Toronto Blue Jays are only in third place in their division, and for the moment outside a postseason berth.

Those facts, however, should not obscure the job general manager Ross Atkins has done to date. Statistically, Atkins has had the best 2021 first half of any executive in the game.

Assessing the AL East GMs at the midway point of the MLB season

Our focus in this installment assessing the work of MLB GMs is on the AL East, Atkins’ division. More on what Atkins has done to improve the Jays in a few paragraphs. First, the basics.

We’re assessing GM performance based on the short-term impact of all personnel moves made since the conclusion of the 2020 season. Our rating standard is Wins Above Average, a variant of Wins Above Replacement that is superior for this purpose because it is zero-based.

That means each GM’s score approximately replicates the number of games he has influenced his team’s standing, either for better or for worse, by dint of what he has done to the roster.

Collectively, the AL East has been a strong division. Through games of Friday, four of its five teams are over .500, and the division as a group is 11 games to the good. It shows up in the rating of the division’s GMs, who are a collective 6.9 games ahead of their MLB peers.

Of course, much of each GM’s work remains to be accomplished. With the July 31 trade deadline, the second half of every season is usually more active than the first half. That means these ratings can change significantly between now and October.

As you look at these ratings, it’s also worth keeping in mind that this system is not designed to necessarily replicate each team’s standing in the race. Rather, it is designed to estimate how much of an impact each GM has had. In theory, that means a GM of a bad team could generate a positive score by modestly improving what was a poor talent base, while the GM of a good team might generate a negative score by making only a few unproductive moves to what was initially a very strong ballclub.

With that said, here are the mid-term ratings for the five AL East general managers.

Toronto Blue Jays, Ross Atkins, +10.0 games

For Atkins, the winter headline move was the signing of free agent George Springer to a six-year deal. The short-term impact of that heralded move has been negligible; an injured Springer (+0.1) has appeared in just 17 games.

As it turns out, the far more impactful decision Atkins made involved the signing of free agent shortstop-turned-second baseman Marcus Semien (+3.2) to a far more modest one-year deal. Semien is delivering an All Star caliber season with 21 home runs and an .880 OPS.

Counting all the new faces, Atkins has introduced 23 players to the Blue Jays since the end of the 2020 season with a batting average any GM would covet. Eleven have produced positive impacts thus far against just nine on the negative side (three were neutral). Factor in that net negative performers usually don’t last long enough to pile up hugely negative numbers and you begin to understand how Atkins compiled that +10.0 game impact.

It also helped that he promoted starter Alex Manoah (+0.8) in May. Since then he’s only 2-0, but that’s because he has been babied, averaging just five innings per start. He has a 2.70 ERA.

Atkins also showed a keen discretionary eye for which players to dump. Atkins severed eight players from the Jays who interested some other GM enough to catch on with a new major league team. Not a single one of the eight has to date produced a positive impact for his new team.

Those eight included infielder Travis Shaw and pitcher Matt Shoemaker, both released by Atkins before signing on with the Brewers and Twins respectively. They have combined to injure their new teams by 3.7 games.

Boston Red Sox, Brian O’Halloran, +3.5 games

O’Halloran’s most widely publicized offseason move may turn out to be his worst. He traded Andrew Benintendi (-0.2) to Kansas City in exchange for Franchy Cordero (-0.6), a short-term negative impact to the Red Sox of nearly a half game.

He more than made up for that faux pas with a succession of less widely heralded hits. They have included:

The harvesting of three arms from the farm system. Josh  Taylor (+0.6), Darwinzon Hernandez (+0.4) and Eduard Bazardo (+0.2) have allowed just 18 earned runs in 71 games amounting to 61 innings, a 2.66 ERA. Net impact: +1.2 games.

The signing of free agent Enrique Hernandez, formerly of the Dodgers. Installed as the team’s new center fielder, Hernandez hasn’t hit for average, but he’s delivered enough punch to measure in at +1.1 WAA.

The acquisition of reliever Adam Ottavino from the Yankees for basically nothing. Ottavino (+0.5) has a 2.75 ERA in 39 games.

A series of less-heralded free agent signings have sometimes helped and sometimes hurt. Those signees include Hunter Renfroe (+0.3), Martin Perez (+0.3) and – O’Halloran’s other significant dark mark thus far – Garrett Richards (-0.6). The net impact of his free agent signings other than Hernandez: -1.6 games.

The decision to let  outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. walk to free agency. Bradley landed in Milwaukee, where to date he has yielded the Brewers -1.4 WAA.

New York Yankees, Brian Cashman, -0.3 games

Since last October, Cashman has presided over one of the most sedate rosters in MLB. He’s brought in only 14 new faces by trade, purchase, draft, free agency or promotion, and allowed only six to escape the Yankee orbit to another team.

By comparison with his fellow GMs, that’s a somnolent pace of activity.

Given New York’s standing – fourth in its division – that absence of activity is of course subject to change on short notice. We will see what Cashman has in mind as the MLB trade deadline approaches.

His two headline offseason moves involved the addition of a pair of pitchers. Jameson Taillon (+0.2) came over from Pittsburgh in exchange for three minor leaguers plus pitcher Miguel Yajure (+0.1). So that deal is a net whitewash.

Corey Kluber signed as a free agent and – given his health concerns – a bargain basement one at that. Kluber (+0.9) was 4-3 with an ERA in the low threes when he got hurt again. So if you’re happy with 10 starts and 53 innings in exchange for your $11 million, feel free to view that signing as a win.

Aside from that, Cashman – with a highly paid cast of under-achievers in place — has mostly tinkered on the edges. He acquired Rougned Odor (-0.3) from the Rangers for a couple minor leaguers, gave him the keys to second base, and got a .217 average.

He signed free agent Jay Bruce (-0.5) as a first base fill-in. Bruce was hitting .118 when it dawned on him that he was no longer major league capable and retired in April.

There was a day not long ago when Cashman could count on the team’s farm system to produce a Miguel Andujar, a Gleyber Torres, a Domingo German. No more. Cashman has only used four rookies in 2021, none of them impactful. The net impact of those rookies to date: -0.9 games.

Tampa Bay Rays, Erik Neander, -2.1 games

Since the conclusion of the 2020 MLB season, Neander has basically preoccupied himself with ways to economically improve the state of the Rays pitching. Given that the Rays were second in ERA and third in fewest runs allowed in 2020, it was an interesting approach.

The data is clear on the approach. Neander has infused 18 new faces into the Rays picture since the end of 2020, all but four of whom were pitchers. The departure numbers are less one-sided: eight pitchers gone, seven non-pitchers. That puts the overall numbers at 33 personnel moves, two-thirds of them involving the addition or subtraction of an arm.

Who were those arms? Chris Archer for one. Signed as a free agent in February, Archer (-0.2) has been a functional non-entity, appearing in just two games before succumbing to injuries.

The most impactful mound moves involved a pair of lesser-knowns. Collin McHugh (+0.7), who sat out 2020, has appeared mostly in relief. He has a 1.77 ERA.

Reliever J.P. Feyereisen (+0.6) came over in May along with Drew Rasmussen (-0.2) as the return on the trade of Willy Adames (+1.4) to Milwaukee. As well as Feyereisen has performed, 4-1, 1.47 in 17 appearances, the deal still swings to Milwaukee by a margin of 1.0 games because of what Adames has meant to the Brewers.

From a publicity standpoint, Neander’s biggest callup was obviously shortstop Wander Franco (+0.3), who debuted in June. But from a performance standpoint, to date, anyway, the most productive callup has been the shortstop Franco replaced, Taylor Walls (+0.9). Playing now as Franco’s backup, Walls has the better batting average and better power numbers.