MLB: Assessing the NL West GMs at the midway point

The halfway point of the 2021 MLB season is also an appropriate time to offer a mid-term assessment of the team-building strategies of Major League general managers.

Today: The National League West.

Assessing the NL West GMs at the midway point of the MLB season

As a group, the moves made by each NL West GM since last October have produced -1.4 WAA for their 2021 teams. But that’s almost entirely a byproduct of their horrid season experienced in Arizona and GM Mike Hazen’s -8.5 rating that results. Hazen, in brief, is the kid who drags down the entire class’s GPA.

As you might deduce from their records, the three teams at the top of the MLB standings – Scott Harris’ Giants, Andrew Friedman’s Dodgers, and A.J. Preller’s Padres – all sit comfortably to the plus side of the rating.

We’re assessing GM performance based on the short-term impact of all personnel moves made since the conclusion of the 2020 season. Our rating standard is Wins Above Average, a variant of Wins Above Replacement that is superior for this purpose because it is zero-based.

That means each GM’s score approximately replicates the number of games he has influenced his team’s standing, either for better or for worse, by dint of what he has done to the roster.

Of course, much of each GM’s work remains to be accomplished. With the July 31 trade deadline, the second half of every season is usually more active than the first half. That means these ratings can change significantly between now and October.

As you look at these ratings, it’s also worth keeping in mind that this system is not designed to necessarily replicate each team’s standing in the race. Rather, it is designed to estimate how much of an impact each GM has had since the end of last season. In theory, that means a GM of a bad team could generate a positive score by modestly improving what was a poor talent base, while the GM of a good team might generate a negative score by making only a few unproductive moves to what was already a very strong ballclub.

With that said, here are the mid-term ratings for the NL West general managers.

San Diego Padres, A.J. Preller, +4.3

Preller was the early front-runner for MLB GM of the Year when he landed front-line starters Yu Darvish (+1.1) and Blake Snell (-0.6) from the Cubs and Rays respectively. As you can gather from their numbers, Darvish (7-3, 3.09) has been the better acquisition. Snell (3-3, 4.99) has been ordinary.

The deals of course have to be assessed in their totality. Darvish brought along personal catcher Victor Caratini (-0.3) at a cost of starter Zach Davies (-0.1 for Chicago) and minor leaguers. That’s a net impact on the Padres of +0.9 games.

To get Snell, the Padres surrendered catcher Francisco Mejia (+0.4) and pitcher Luis Patino (-0.5). The net impact on San Diego is -0.5 games.

Preller had better, if less publicized, moments. Well one of them, the signing of Fernando Tatis Jr. to a $338 million contract through 2033 got plenty of ink. Through the first half, Tatis has delivered a .299 average, a league-leading 1.065 OPS, and a 3.8 WAA.

The trade that landed starter Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh was a sleeper compared with the Darvish and Snell deals, but it has thus far worked in San Diego’s favor. Musgrove (+0.6) is 5-6 with a 2.97 ERA while the two major league players they lost – Joey Lucchesi (-0.2) to the Mets and David Bednar (+0.4) to the Pirates, bring the net impact on San Diego to +0.4 games.

Preller also gets credit for finding veteran reliever Mark Melancon (+0.8) and infielder Ha-Seong Kim (+0.4) on the open market.

Although hard-hit by the winter trades, the Padres’ rookie class has managed to produce pitcher Ryan Weathers (+0.8), 4-2, 3.02.

Los Angeles Dodgers, Andrew Friedman, +1.9

Until the domestic abuse charges surfaced against Trevor Bauer, Friedman’s short-term moves looked pretty good. The signing of Bauer (+1.8) was obviously the star turn, but Friedman also accomplished the re-signing of veteran free agent third baseman Justin Turner (+1.4).

Turner cost the Dodgers at least $34 million over three seasons – more if they keep him in 2023 – but Friedman was unwilling to gamble on the cost of replacing a .303 hitter (at least so far) with a .886 OPS.

Friedman’s record also benefits from the fact that the extension Mookie Betts signed last year kicked in this season. Betts (+1.6) has been less than expected, batting .243 with 11 homers and 32 RBIs…but then expectations were always very high.

Those three moves constitute about 350 percent of Friedman’s improvement of the team. Here’s the breakdown:

• He made six other free agent deals at a net impact on LA of -1.0 game.
• He acquired seven players by trade, purchase, or waiver claim at a net impact of -1.3 games.
• He has utilized four rookies at a net impact of -1.6 games.
• He forced or permitted the exile of five players, notably Joc Pederson (-1.4) to the Cubs and Enrique Hernandez (+1.2) to the Red Sox, at a net impact on LA of 1.0 game.

Colorado Rockies, Jeff Bridich and Bill Schmidt, -0.4

The Rockies made an unusual mid-course adjustment to their 2021 leadership team in April when Bridich was removed as GM, probably due to fallout from the winter’s trade of Nolan Arenado and all the unhappiness associated with that deal.

Schmidt, who was the team’s scouting director, was named to replace him – at least for this season – and will be the man pulling the trade deadline trigger on the future of shortstop Trevor Story, probably among others.

To this point of the MLB season, however, most of the front office impact on the team accrues to Bridich, the bulk of it through the Arenado trade. In St. Louis, Arenado (+1.5) has to date delivered 17 home runs and an .831 OPS.

The Rockies’ returns on that deal, principally pitcher Austin Gomber, measure out at +0.4, all of it accruing to Gomber’s 6-5 record and 3.68 ERA. So to this stage, the deal is a -1.1 short-term negative impact on Colorado.

The Rockies, obviously, are looking for better long-term returns down the road…but then that could be said of all of us.

Aside from solving the Arenado problem, Bridich’s big off-season focus was on solving Colorado’s perennial pitching problem, which he tried to do by re-signing veteran arms with a Colorado background. Chi Chi Rodriguez was released and then re-signed two days later, presumably at the bargain rate of $1.1 million.

Jhoulys Chacin, who got his start with Colorado, returned at age 33 for a second go. That reliance on veterans has not necessarily worked out. Between them, Chacin and Gonzalez are 3-5 with ERAs in the fives. Measured in WAA, their combined impact is -1.2 games.

Catcher Dom Nunez has been the big Rockies prospect to make a mark, basically splitting time behind the plate with veteran Elias Diaz. But the learning curve has been high to date. Nunez (-0.9) is batting just .174 with a .637 OPS.

Arizona Diamondbacks, Mike Hazen, -8.5 games

Hazen’s season from hell began innocently enough. The Diamondbacks were 15-13 in late April and looked to be bound for a decent, if not contending, season. The long losing streaks, 13 games in May and 17 in June, changed that narrative.

It’s a fair question how much of that failure accrues to Hazen and how much of it is a simple matter of player under-performance. But it’s also an academic question; in the big leagues, as in much of the business world, the boss gets the credit or blame.

Statistically, the simple answer is that Hazen’s failures have been a product both of errors at the free agent table and in the farm system production. He’s utilized seven first-year players, and their combined impact on the D-Backs amounts to an unsustainable -4.9 WAA.

Most of that damage has been inflicted by young pitchers. Kevin Ginkel (-1.0) has a 6.35 ERA, Riley Smith (-1.1) is 1-4, 6.20, and Jon Duplantier (-0.9) turned in an 0-3, 13.15 before being shipped off the IL. During one of the losing streaks, J.B. Bukauskas (-0.7) got a tryout, resulting in 10 earned runs allowed in 12 innings.

Hazen devoted copious winter energy to rebuilding the pitching staff, mostly with distressing results. He signed or re-signed nine arms, among them Joakim Soria (+0.1), Brad Peacock (-0.6), Nick Frankoff (-0.5), and Joe Mantiply (-0.6). The net impact of those nine signings or re-signings: a 5-16 record, a 5.41 ERA, and -2.4 WAA.