Philadelphia Phillies second half will rush at them quickly

The first surprise of the All-Star break for many Philadelphia Phillies fans had nothing to do with J.T. Realmuto or Zack Wheeler, their representatives, or their performances in the big game, or any Eagles news (always possible), but the fact that Baseball Reference had just picked Philadelphia to win the NL East.

This season.

The second surprise of the break was that this wasn’t an entirely nutty notion. The Phillies schedule, one of the most challenging of the MLB first half, will theoretically fall off a cliff in terms of difficulty in the second half. As callers and talk radio hosts enthusiastically noted, the Phillies second half is full of games with the Pirates and Diamondbacks and those kids in The Sandlot.

The Phillies need to maintain focus for a seemingly less difficult second half schedule.

And the first-place Mets’ schedule gets tougher.

Could this possibly be, and what could these facts mean for Fightin’ moves at the rapidly approaching trade deadline? The Mets lead the .500 Phillies by only 3.5 games before play begins again July 16.

Moreover, only one team had played better over their last 10 games than the suddenly healthy Phillies, the Reds. Several other teams had equal records, but Philadelphia had accomplished their recent 7-3 run against the Padres, Cubs, and Red Sox.

So, what do the Phillies actually do about their iffy back-end starters and nearly-as-iffy bullpen, not to mention a couple of “everyday problems” like Alec Bohm’s sophomore slump and a generally poor defensive performance?

A friend tweeted the next two weeks would be pivotal; I replied that might well be only one week.

In fact, an argument could be made that the Phillies’ second half is bearing down on them like a hundred-car freight train coming down a long, straight hill. On July 16 they have a double-header against Miami, and a lot of teams would probably welcome that. Philadelphia, however, has a 16-22 record against the Marlins over the past 2½ seasons, and Miami’s first three starters are all pitching better than their won-lost records indicate.

All of Miami’s starters are rested with the arguable exception of Trevor Rogers, who threw 18 pitches in the All-Star game. All of Philly’s pitchers are rested, including Wheeler, who threw three pitches for a strikeout in that exhibition game.

However, unfortunately, both of the Phillies pitchers for the Friday double-header had been announced by mid-afternoon Thursday: Matt Moore and Zach Eflin, and Moore at least seems a mistake.

It seems foolhardy for the Phillies to start anyone else Friday afternoon and evening but Aaron Nola and Wheeler (in that order). Eflin, who last pitched six innings on July 8, is not a horrible choice.

Any other Philadelphia starters besides Wheeler and Nola, however, make less than optimal sense since their other four nominal starters are candidates for trade-deadline replacement.

It is very, very important for the Phillies to start the second half by winning three of four, minimally, against Miami. The Mets, you see, start their second half against lowly Pittsburgh.