Fatal flaw: Every MLB contender has a weak spot
MLB bullpens are flighty entities, in Queens and elsewhere. Led, when he’s healthy, by Jacob deGrom, the Mets have a justly intimidating rotation. But the five most frequently used starters have only delivered about 405 innings in 2021, less than half the number of innings the Mets have played.
That has put a huge – and so far unsupportable – burden on the bullpen, the team’s potentially fatal flaw.
Statistically, New York’s bullpen has virtually erased all the good things deGrom, Marcus Stroman and the rest of the team’s starters have accomplished. Met starters have accumulated +3.2 Wins Above Average so far. But led by closer Edwin Diaz and primary setup man Jeurys Familia, the Mets pen has allowed -2.9 Wins Above Average. That reduces the sum of the Mets’ pitchers’ contribution to team success to just +0.3 WAA. The pen ranks 22nd in that category among the 30 teams.
Diaz has 22 saves. But he also has a 3-4 record and a 3.98 ERA. Despite their first place standing in the NL East, the Mets are actually underwater in walkoff games in 2021, having won seven but lost eight.
Since it is axiomatic that a team lacking a reliable, stable bullpen cannot survive postseason pressure, Task A for Mets leadership this week is to figure out how to shore up that bullpen situation. The team’s pen cannot be allowed to offset the performance of the starters if New York hopes to celebrate in October.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are within striking distance of the Mets despite several performance gaps of their own.
Begin at third base, where the Phils have counted on Alec Bohm, coming off a 2020 rookie season in which he hit .338. That’s developing into a fatal flaw.
Two-thirds of the way through 2021, Bohm finds himself in a significant sophomore slump. His average is down to .245, he has only 18 extra base hits and he’s carrying a .644 OPS. Largely due to Bohm, Phillies third basemen rank 27th among the 30 MLB teams in production at -2.0 WAA.
Phillies President Dave Dombrowski also must shore up his team’s bullpen. At -2.4 WAA, it ranks 20th. Closer Hector Neris is 1-5 with a 4.69 ERA and just 12 saves.
That’s promoted the Phils to look elsewhere on their own roster – namely at Ranger – with mixed results. Suarez has saved four of his 11 appearances since June 26, but he’s also been saddled with three blown saves and two losses.
The Phils also need help at shortstop, where Didi Gregorius is batting just .217with a .665 OPS. That translates to a -1.2 WAA.
Add it up and the Phillies are trying to win a pennant while weighted down by -5.4 WAA from their pen and the left side of their infield.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves were expected to win the NL East, possibly in dominant fashion. Two-thirds of the way through the MLB season, they sit a shaky third, two games under .500, but a putative contender only because the teams ahead of them are also flawed.
One obvious problem has been in the outfield, where Marcell Ozuna, coming off a career season, was supposed to be an offensive force. Instead Ozuna started poorly, got injured, and then was suspended when an allegation of domestic abuse surfaced.
The Braves have never figures out how to replace the offensive punch they expected Ozuna to provide. With the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. to injury, they’re also suffering at a second outfield position.
At -2.0 WAA, Atlanta ranks dead last among the 30 teams in left field production. At -1.6 games, they stand 29th in center field production, ahead of only the Cleveland Indians.
The Braves have a third serious flaw: behind the plate. The expected starter, Travis d’Arnaud, is injured, placing the backstop burden on rookie William Contreras and a bunch of fill-ins. Contreras, brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, is hitting just .204 with a .666 OPS. Fill-ins Stephan Vogt and Kevan Smith are the rostered catchers as of this moment, and neither is contributing.
As a group, Braves catchers have produced -2.4 WAA in 2021, the second worst showing in MLB at that position. Only Miami’s catchers have been a bigger burden to their team’s hopes of winning.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers ride the wave in the NL Central largely due to a superb pitching staff. With starters Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta and relievers Josh Hader and Devin Williams, Brewers pitchers as a staff lead MLB in WAA at +7.4.
The offense is another circumstance entirely, and at no position is the problem more acute than at a primary power position, first base.
Keston Hiura, the regular, is hitting .168 and has bounced between the majors and minors. Daniel Vogelbach is batting .216. Between them Hiura and Vogelbach have produced just 11 home run with 34 RBIs. Combined, they have become a potentially fatal flaw.
Milwaukee is also fighting a severe under-production at a second usual power spot, third base. There, Travis Shaw was hitting just .191 when he went on the injured list. His primary replacement, Luis Urias, is better, but at .236 isn’t providing the kind of offense teams expect at the corner infield spots.
The data underscores Milwaukee’s problem. Brewers’ first basemen as a group have generated -2.0 WAA, the second worst contribution to victory of any MLB team’s first basemen. Brewers’ third basemen, meanwhile, score -1.2, and rank 25th among the 30 MLB teams.
The bottom line is this: Brewers pitchers are great, but they’re likely to need some assistance from the offense if the Brewers are to advance through the postseason.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds’ thus-far futile effort to haul in the Brewers in the NL Central has been hampered by under-production at three important everyday positions. Any or all could become a fatal flaw.
The most acute concern is third base, which shapes up as Cincinnati’s fatal flaw. Eugenio Suarez entered the season viewed as an emerging star. But he’s followed up a sub-par 2020 with an even worse 2021, his average now hanging around .172. He’s carrying .613 OPS.
Things aren’t much better at shortstop, where Kyle Farmer is stuck in the low .240s. And out in center field, manager David Bell really doesn’t have a regular. Nick Senzel, Tyler Naquin and Shogo Akiyama have divided time, none of them effectively. Senzel is the only one of the three above .250, and he’s on the injured list.
Statistically, Reds’ third basemen have produced -2.7 WAA, a total that ranks ahead of only one MLB team. At -2.1, they’re 30th at both the shortstop and center field positions. That’s one-third of the everyday lineup generating -6.9 WAA and ranking at or near the bottom inoffensive productivity.
It’s theoretically possible for Reds GM Nick Krall to fix one, or possibly even two, of those problems at the trade deadline. Fixing all three is a stiffer challenge, especially since the Reds – who have gone 3-7 since the All Star break – appear to receding from the pennant race.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Make no mistake, the Dodgers remain formidable. That’s true even with the loss of ace Trevor Bauer.
But it is also increasingly evident that the Dodgers are a team with a potentially fatal flaw. There is one standout weakness, and it’s an area that has sunk better teams with post-season aspirations: the bullpen.
The closer, Kenley Jansen, is carrying a respectable 2.97 ERA. But Jansen is just 1-4 and he’s allowed 1.4 baserunners per inning, largely due to his unreliable control. He’s walked 27 opponents in less than 40 innings this season.
The supporting cast – Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly, David Price, Jimmy Nelson — is veteran-laden. But their performance, too, has often been in-and-out.
The sum total of Dodger bullpen efforts in 2021 works out to -2.6 WAA. By MLB standards, that’s bottom third. Compare that with the far more reliable Dodger starters, who are at +5.6 WAA. Overall, Dodger pitchers remain an asset, but a compromised one.
Relief pitchers are an abundant asset on the trade market this week. Some, notably Andrew Chafin, have already been claimed but others remain available. It will be a major surprise, and a major mistake, if Dodgers’ team President Andrew Friedman doesn’t lay claim to at least one big-name arm by week’s end.
San Francisco Giants
Statistically, the Giants are in the best position of any of the postseason contenders. Possessing an overall +11.4 WAA, they are a team without truly glaring weaknesses.
But there are bumps in the team’s performance that could stand an upgrade to prevent them from becoming a fatal flaw. It will be interesting to see whether team President Farhan Zaidi can fix one or more of them.
Begin at second base. Donovan Solano’s numbers aren’t bad, but they are relatively powerless. Solano is a .266 hitter with only three home runs and a .675 OPS. He’s also a defensive liability with a -7 defensive runs saved.
His backups, Mauricio Dubon and Wilmer Flores, are competent as fill-ins, but that’s about it. The sum of San Francisco’s production from second base this season is -0.6 WAA. That may not be a disaster, but it does rank 23rd among the 30 MLB teams.
Production has also lagged at the consummate offensive position, left field. The regular, Alex Dickerson, is at .226. He and his backups – principally Mike Tauchman and Austin Slater – have combined 23 home runs, a solid total. But neither Tauchman (.173) nor Slater (.218) have hit a lick. As a group, they have combined for -0.8 WAA, leaving Giants left fielders 22nd in production among the 30 MLB teams.
San Diego Padres
The Padres have already made one move of significance. This week they landed Adam Frazier, the National League’s hit leader, in a trade with Pittsburgh. Frazier is a competent second baseman with great bat-on-ball skills.
Too bad he can’t catch. That’s where the Padres need an upgrade. That position is their fatal flaw.
San Diego has existed this year by alternating Victor Caratini, Webster Rivas, Austin Nola and Luis Campusano. Caratini, a lifetime backup, has carried the bulk of the load, and the additional duties have not served him well. He’s hitting .224 with a .658 OPS and producing negative defensive numbers.
Starting the season, Nola was supposed to be the other half of the answer behind the plate. But he is below .200. Rivas has become the Plan B almost by default, but he’s at .220.
Add it all up and Padres catchers have generated -1.3 WAA this season. Among MLB teams, that ranks 26th, ahead of only the Rangers, Indians, Braves, and Marlins.
A contender can survive without production from its catchers if they excel in such intangibles as team leadership. That does not describe Padres catchers. Among them, Caratini, Rivas, and Nola have never been known for their team leadership skills.
If the Padres are serious about making a run at the World Series this year, they need a quick and clear upgrade at catcher.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have the best record in the American League. That’s despite getting minimal production at one of the dominant offensive positions in the game, first base.
Boston’s regular, Bobby Dalbec, is a rookie and he is finding out that the big leagues demand big production. Dalbec may be great some day, but that day has not yet arrived. For the present, he is a walking fatal flaw. At a power position, he’s hitting .218 with a .656 OPS and just 36 RBIs.
Sox manager Alex Cora has from time to time sought a boost at the position from either Marwin Gonzalez or Danny Santana. His hopes have been in vain. Gonzalez is hitting .205, Santana .171.
As a group red Sox first basemen have delivered -2.5 WAA. That is the worst production by any first base group in MLB this season. In fact only two positions on any teams – Marlins catchers and Royals third basemen – have been less productive in their support of their teams’ pennant prospects.
The rumor is hot that the Red Sox covet Cubs’ first baseman Anthony Rizzo to provide a transfusion down the stretch drive. The Red Sox need Rizzo, a postseason veteran with winning World Series experience, about as badly as any postseason contender needs any player.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have become famous – and borderline notorious – for their inventive use of a pitching staff.
So it is perhaps a bit ironic that of all the MLB postseason contenders, it is the Rays with the shakiest rotation. That looms as their fatal flaw.
The loss of Tyler Glasnow certainly hurt. Without him, the load has fallen on a succession of guys trying to make it. The veterans are Michael Wacha (5.16) and Ryan Yarbrough (4.38), neither a candidate to fill a leadership role. Yet with Shane McClanahan, a 24-year-old rookie, they are identified as the team’s aces.
The reality is that – having recently traded Rich Hill — the Rays don’t have any starter they can count on. The sum WAA of all Tampa Bay starters this year is -1.6, a number that ranks 22nd among the 30 MLB teams. Only one other contender’s rotation (the Padres) is even fractionally negative in WAA.
The first question is whether Rays management even recognizes the lack of quality starting pitching as a problem. They did, after all, just a few days ago trade a starter (Hill) for nobody of value to the team’s 2021 situation.
If the Rays don’t survive very deep into the postseason, it’s likely that the team’s thin rotation will be the reason.
Chicago White Sox
In terms of winning their division, the White Sox are as home free as any team in baseball. Baseball-Reference makes them a 99.4 percent favorite to play postseason baseball. Only the Giants and Dodgers have better odds, and obviously, the odds on them can’t be all that much better.
But as Tony La Russa is only too aware, the Sox, too, show a potentially fatal flaw. It’s in the pen.
The back end of the pen looks good enough. Closer Liam Hendriks is enjoying a 4-2, 2.49 season with 24 saves. His backup, Michael Kopech, is 3-0, 1.60 with a 0.99 WHIP in 39 innings.
Dig deeper, though, and cracks begin to surface. Codi Heuer and Aaron Bummer have been called on for 70 innings of work thus far; both have ERAs around 5.00. Another veteran Evan Marshall, is at 5.60, high enough that La Russa has begun to curtail his usage.
That’s shifted more of the load to youngsters Jose Ruiz and Garrett Crochet.
As a group, the Sox pen sits at -1.2 WAA. Bullpens are such a volatile commodity that even that -1.2 only ranks 15th. But there’s no way -1.2 can be painted in a positive light, particularly for a team with serious postseason aspirations.
Houston Astros
The bullpen as a team’s fatal flaw is a recurring theme in a game that places so much emphasis on so unreliable a position.
But perhaps with no serious contender is the need for a quick bullpen redo as critical as it is in Houston.
The Astros may lead the AL West comfortably, but the pen situation has to be making Houston fans nervous. The closer, Ryan Pressley, has great numbers: 4-1, 1.50, 18 saves, a 0.79 WHIP.
Beyond that…look out. The four most used relievers, Brandon Bielak, Ryne Stanek, Bryan Abreu and Brooks Raley, have a combined 5.03 ERA, and that’s across a healthy 143 innings. That’s one-sixth of the team’s innings overall.
Even with Pressley starring in the lead role, the Astros pen has impacted the team to the tune of -3.2 WAA. That makes Houston’s the seventh worst pen in all of MLB, and the worst among serious contenders.
Ask most baseball experts what’s the most serious flaw a serious contender can have entering a pivotal postseason series, and most would immediately identify a shaky bullpen. No contender’s bullpen is shakier than Houston’s.
They moved to fix that fatal flaw Tuesday, trading for Seattle reliever Kendall Graveman.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are solid in many places where a contender is supposed to be solid. Measured by WAA, they are No. 1 at first base (thanks to Matt Olson), top 10 in left and center, solid at third and second, and they have a reliable rotation.
The fatal flaw is at shortstop, where the A’s are getting virtually no contribution.
Elvis Andrus, brought over from Texas in a pre-season trade, is batting .232 with a.585 OPS. He’s also been a defensive liability, with -6 defensive runs saved. Thus far A’s manager Bob Melvin has taken a sink-or-swim attitude with Andrus, who has started all but even of the team’s 101 games.
It isn’t working. Andrus, in company with his occasional fill-ins, has accounted for -1.2 WAA at the position. That ranks a desultory 28th among the 30 teams, ahead of only the Pirates and Reds.
It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to boil down the difference between the Athletics and the division-leading Astros to that one fatal flaw. Oakland trails Houston by five games. Astros shortstops, principally Carlos Correa, have generated a +2.4 WAA, 3.6 games better than Andrus’ Athletics.
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Oakland’s front office should have one target this MLB trade week: upgrading at shortstop. The team Is not likely to survive long in the postseason if they are relying on Andrus.