Rhys Hoskins: A chance now to become what he could be

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Rhys Hoskins returned to his team’s lineup Aug. 22 with the kind of splash he originally made at the MLB level in 2017. He hit two long home runs and propelled the Sometime Fightin’s to a 7-4 victory over the San Diego Padres, a team as inconsistent now as Philadelphia, and one the Phillies may have to run down for a Wild Card spot if Philadelphia wants to taste playoff action in 2021.

Hoskins had been sidelined with a groin pull for about two weeks, and the Phillies offense didn’t pick up the slack behind their home run and RBI leader in his absence.

If Hoskins could hit a bit like he did in the series-winning game with the Padres for several weeks, maybe, just maybe…. This was not at all an assured thing – the two coming weeks would likely tell – but even if the Phillies fall short of the postseason, or even a winning season, Rhys Hoskins appears to be edging towards his actual MLB potential for the long run.

And after all, the man is only 28 now.

He isn’t the “white Barry Bonds,” as some called him soon after he broke into the Phillies lineup, but he appears to be something like a valuable power hitter in his fifth season.

Hoskins wowed the world, of course, in his short debut in 2017, hitting 18 homers in his first 34 games, but it’s what happened next that suggested something the next few years would bear out about the 6-foot-4 bomber – he is streaky. He hit no dingers in his last 16 games in that campaign.

Over the next 3-plus seasons that MLB has contested in the next four years, Rhys Hoskins has had 13 more homerless streaks of at least 10 games. Injuries haven’t helped his productivity either, but in that time, the big first sacker has also emerged as perhaps the only vocal leader in the Phillies clubhouse besides Bryce Harper (who actually seems to be trying too hard in that regard sometimes).

So, what do the Phillies have in Hoskins? He’s arbitration eligible after this year, in which he is making $4.8 million.

First and foremost, they have a player with an odd stat for a player who has basically been an everyday cog for five seasons – Hoskins’ average home run figure for 162 games – 37 – is higher than any seasonal home run total he has yet posted. That isn’t all a matter of the COVID season either.

His doubles average per 162 games – 37 as well – is also higher than all but one of his seasonal figures.

Despite those yearly averages, the Big Fella has never driven in 100 runs. Between streakiness and injuries, the begging question is: Will he ever do that? His average per 162 games is 103, another unreached seasonal number.

The Big Opportunity

Fans were quite excited about Rhys Hoskins’ homers against San Diego in Philadelphia the morning of Aug. 23. Should they be? Is he becoming a big game performer, which seems necessary for a power-hitting first baseman who’s only an average fielder?

I suppose we could count big headlines, but that seems silly, and MLB stopped counting game-winning RBI years ago. A moderately deep dive into the figures Hoskins has posted thus far, however, yields some encouraging signs.

First, this season, whatever his final home run and RBI totals, Rhys Hoskins seems definitely headed for a career high in doubles, which is now 38 (’18). He has 29 thus far in ’21. This is likely related to his barrel rate this season – 16.9 percent – finally, a figure higher than in his torrid 50 opening games (13.5).

For comparison’s sake, Mike Trout’s career barrel rate is 15.1 percent (18.4 for the current season).

Also, Hoskins has finally left behind his reluctance to swing at less than perfect pitches, a tendency resulting in 116 walks in ’19, but a .226 batting average.

As the slugger’s walks and strikeouts have both dropped, his walk to strikeout ratio has wobbled (1 to 1.49 in ’19; 1 to 2.30 this year). However, his slugging percentage has risen to a career high (.526), excepting his 50-game debut at the end of ’17. (.618). Being on first base is not as good as being on second.

For Rhys Hoskins, then, and the Phillies right now, it’s all about his better consistency, as well as hitting rather than walking. The next two weeks are probably the most important in this fan favorite’s career so far.