Houston Astros should not make Qualifying Offer to Justin Verlander

The Houston Astros have a decision to make this offseason. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is slated to reach free agency as he is in the final year of his two year year, $66 million extension. That contract has not worked out as the Astros had hoped due to Verlander undergoing Tommy John surgery, limiting him to just six innings in that time.

However, there is no questioning Verlander’s track record. An eight time All Star, two time Cy Young award winner, and the 2011 AL MVP, Verlander has put together a career that will end up in Cooperstown. But the question remains – how much does he have left in the tank?

Houston Astros have difficult decision to make with Justin Verlander

As Verlander will be 39 years old at the beginning of the 2022 season, the finish line is in sight. It is rare that a player continues to have sustained excellence into their late 30s and into their 40s, which is what Verlander would be attempting to do.

For the Astros, the question is whether or not to extend a Qualifying Offer. The $66 million contract has been a disaster, but they could theoretically salvage something if he was to accept the deal. As Verlander essentially has not pitched in two years, that $19 million payday could be too tempting to pass up.

When healthy, Verlander could still be amongst the better pitchers in the game. In 2019, his last full season, he posted a 21-6 record with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.803 WHiP over his 223 innings, striking out 300 batters with just 42 walks. While he allowed a career high 36 homers, Verlander was dominant in every other way.

However, the Astros may not need to spend that type of money. They theoretically have a full rotation for 2022, especially as several prospects are getting close to major league ready. Meanwhile, the Astros will need to remake their bullpen and find a replacement for Carlos Correa, who has been adamant that he will not return to Houston when his contract is done at the end of the year.

With those holes on their roster, Verlander’s age, and his attempt to bounce back from Tommy John surgery at his age, make such a commitment a risky proposition. Verlander will certainly attract interest in free agency, but it is time for the Astros to move on if they want to fill those gaps this offseason.

The Houston Astros have to decide whether or not to offer a Qualifying Offer to Justin Verlander. At this point, it is just not worth doing so.