MLB: The rarity of a 16-inning game

Wednesday’s 16-inning marathon in which the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Padres in San Diego was not only the longest game since the new MLB extra inning rules were implemented, it was also the first to require more than 13 innings to complete.

In a perverse way, the marathon also illustrated the significant change the extra inning rule change has wrought on how long games are settled.

MLB’s extra inning rule highlighted on Wednesday night

In fact, prior to Wednesday only four of the 262 extra inning games played under the new rule had required more than 12 innings to settle. All four of those ended in the 13th.

In 2019, the last season played under traditional extra innings rules, there were 208 extra inning games. Of those, 37 —  17 percent — qualified for characterization as ‘marathon’ games, lasting more than 12 innings.

Forty-four percent of 2019 extra inning MLB games ended in the 10th inning.

Since the implementation of the “runner on second” provision, the rate at which games are terminated in the first extra inning has skyrocketed to 73 percent, nearly three in four. Less than one percent have reached ‘marathon’ status, ending in the 13th inning or later.

Both the Dodger and Padre offenses defied probability Wednesday, neither team failing to score in any of the first five extra innings despite being given the advantage of starting an inning with a runner in scoring position.

Both teams had runners thrown out at home plate. In the top of the 12th inning, Max Muncy took third on a wild pitch but was erased on A.J. Pollock’s ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado.

One inning later, Will Smith got to third on Cody Bellinger’s single, but was erased trying to score on Trea Turner’s ground ball back to Padres pitcher Nabil Crismatt.

In the bottom of the same inning, Victor Caratini was retired at home on another ground ball to the mound, this one fielded by Brusdar Graterol.

Then in the bottom of the 14th, Jake Cronenworth got to third on an infield grounder, but was retired in a rundown after Tommy Pham grounded to Graterol.

Both teams scored a pair of runs in the 15th. The Dodgers pushed across their runs on three singles, the last two by Billy McKinney and Treat Turner scoring Chris Taylor – who began the inning at second – and Will Smith, who produced the inning’s first hit.

The Padres tied the game on Fernando Tatis’ two-run home run.

LA finally sealed the deal when A.J. Pollock led off the 16th with a two-run home run.