New York Mets: How many wins does Jacob deGrom need for Hall of Fame?

There is no question that Jacob deGrom has been one of the best pitchers of his era. The New York Mets ace has put together an impressive resume during his time in the majors, being named to four All Star Games and winning two Cy Young awards. He had been the frontrunner for both the NL Cy Young and MVP awards this season prior to being placed on the Injured List in mid July, his dominant run coming to a screeching halt.

deGrom’s excellence has not just been a brief flash in the pan. He has posted a career 2.50 ERA and a 1.011 WHiP over his 1261.1 innings, striking out 1505 batters with just 295 walks. Given his overall performance, it is not a surprise that there is talk od deGrom being a potential Hall of Famer when his career comes to an end.

New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom lacking in one Hall of Fame area

If deGrom can continue to dominate, he could have a compelling argument. Even though he is 33 years old, he has not displayed any signs of slowing down when healthy, seemingly getting better every year. But there is one potential area that could muddy his case – his low win total.

Wins do not have the same hold over voters that they once had. The move to a more sabermetric mindset has led to the re-examination of several candidates, helping worthy players find immortality. Wins certainly have not mattered for seasonal awards either, as recent Cy Young voting has indicated. But that does not mean they are entirely irrelevant when it comes to the Hall of Fame.

At this point in his career, deGrom has 77 career victories. This total is skewed due to the pandemic shortened 2020 season and the Mets inability to score runs in his starts, but this total remains. That win total would easily be the lowest of any pitcher in the Hall of Fame that spent the majority of their career as a starter.

Of the 87 pitchers in the Hall of Fame, there are 27 pitchers with fewer than 200 wins, five of which are within ten victories of that mark. That 200 win plateau is likely far beyond where deGrom will end his career given his current total, but that does not mean the Hall of Fame will be beyond his grasp.

If we ignore those who spent the majority of their careers as closers or in the Negro Leagues, there are 11 pitchers who were inducted with fewer than 200 victories. Two of those, Candy Cummings and John Ward, were inducted partly due to their contributions to the game as well as their performance. Addie Joss is also on that list, but is a special case as he passed away with just nine seasons in the majors.

Taking that trio out, there are just two pitchers with fewer than 180 wins in the majors. Dizzy Dean won 150 games as his career was interrupted due to injury. Sandy Koufax had 165 wins, forced into retirement at 30 years old due to elbow woes. That may be the line that deGrom needs to approach in order to ensure induction.

The question is now whether or not deGrom can get to the 150 win plateau. In theory, that would be doable – he should have another five to seven years of being a productive pitcher, with some of those seasons likely being dominant. If the Mets can find a way to score runs for him over the next few years, that should happen.

deGrom’s candidacy could be fascinating. The argument about the value of wins as a measure of pitching success has not yet made its way to the Hall of Fame debate. This is set to change. deGrom has certainly been dominant enough to merit discussion once his career comes to an end, but how much will his win total matter? While his lack of wins should not make a difference, it may dissuade some voters.

Jacob deGrom is building an impressive Hall of Fame case. The question will be whether or not his low win totals hinder the New York Mets ace.