With three weeks remaining in the 2021 season, the NL Cy Young race is nowhere near resolution.
No fewer than eight plausible candidates are still in contention, with the final judgment probably hinging on the candidates’ performance over these final three weeks. Each pitcher will probably get about five additional starts to improve their standing compared with their fellow competitors.
The eight most plausible contenders are: Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer of the Dodgers, Kevin Gausman of the Giants, Zack Wheeler of the Phillies, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals and Wade Miley of the Reds. The record of each contains plenty of strengths, but also at least one or two relative shortcomings.
Determining who should win the NL Cy Young award
To objectively rate the candidacies of the eight, I’m assessing each according to their performance in five statistical categories that are widely considered by Cy Young voters. Those five categories, a mixture of ‘old’ and ‘new’ stats and also a mix of ‘counting’ and ‘rate’ categories, are innings pitched, wins, ERA, pitching WAR, and ERA+.
At the end, I’ve attached a number to each candidate. That number corresponds to the average ordinal rank of each of the eight in the five categories. The lower the average ordinal rank, the better the pitcher’s chances probably are of actually winning the award.
Still, other factors can come into play. Four of the eight – Burnes and Woodruff of the Brewers and Buehler and Scherzer of the Dodgers – are teammates, raising the prospect that they could split the vote and hurt each other’s candidacies.