The NL Cy Young race: An eight-way contest
By Bill Felber
Pitching WAR
Pitching WAR is a statistical assessment of each player’s contribution to his team’s victory total relative to the expected performance of a replacement player. A rating of +4.0 indicates that a pitcher was worth about four games in the standings beyond that which the team might have been expected to gain from a generic callup.
To date, the leader in pitcher WAR is Wheeler at 6.4. Miley (6.1) is second.
Since WAR is in essence a ‘counting’ stat – it is likely to increase with use – Wheeler’s rank in this category probably relates to his heavier workload.
In that sense, Miley may have the more intriguing resume here. He has piled up his 6.1 pitching WAR — only fractionally below Wheeler – In 33 fewer innings, a notable accomplishment.
To the extent that Wainwright has not gotten widespread Cy Young consideration, this category is probably the reason. He is last among the contenders in WAR, at just 3.8 games.
The Cy Young case for Burnes, too, is hurt by this category. His 4.8 WAR is probably depressed by the factors we’ve already cited, principally his relatively light workload.
Pitcher WAR
1 Wheeler 6.4
2 Miley 6.1
3 Buehler 5.5
3 Scherzer 5.5
5 Woodruff 5.3
6 Gausman 4.9
7 Burnes 4.8
8 Wainwright 3.3