Looking ahead with Jed Hoyer to the 2022 Chicago Cubs

Alec Mills

The Chicago Cubs gave Mills a chance in 2021 to establish himself as a central part of their pitching plans going forward. He hasn’t done it.

Mills has made 16 starts, worked 101 innings, and given up 114 base hits, a dozen of them home runs. His 1.382 WHIP is nothing special, and his 97 ERA+ is below the 100 league average, although hardly a disgrace for a second-year pitcher.

The same could be said of his 6-6 record and 4.35 ERA.

Mills’ problem is that with his lack of velocity – his fastball sits at the 8th percentile among big league arms — he must be precise. A few pitchers can spot the ball well enough to survive with so-so stuff; Mills hasn’t shown himself to be that guy yet.

Opponents are hitting between .280 and .300 against his sinker, his four-seamer, and his changeup this season. Since those three pitchers comprise three-quarters of his repertoire, that’s a problem.

Since Mills isn’t yet arbitration-eligible, he’ll be around next spring. Whether he figures into the rotation or is competing for playing time depends on how aggressive Hoyer wants to be in the starter market this winter.

The more aggressive Hoyer is, the more seriously he’ll be honoring his commitment to returning the Chicago Cubs to contender status in 2022…and the more problematic Mills’ status with the team will be.