NL Wild Card: Five teams enter, one team emerges

At the midway point of September, there are three teams with a realistic chance to grab the second NL Wild Card spot (Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, and St. Louis Cardinals) and two teams with a very long shot of grabbing the final spot (Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets).

The Los Angeles Dodgers or San Francisco Giants have already clinched one Wild Card spot (depending on how the NL West title chase finishes). That leaves just one slot open for five other teams with hopes of reaching the postseason.

Who has the upper hand? Heading into Wednesday’s action, FanGraphs showed Cincinnati with a 36.8 percent chance to earn the Wild Card spot, while St. Louis (30.9 percent), San Diego (23.9 percent), Philadelphia (5.5 percent), and the Mets (1.4 percent) follow them.

So what does the final stretch look like for each of these contenders? Let’s break it down.

Here are some of the key games for the Reds, Padres, Cardinals, Phillies, and Mets as they chase the second NL Wild Card spot.

Cincinnati Reds (17 games to play)

Games remaining

at Pittsburgh (2)

vs. L.A. Dodgers (3)

vs. Pittsburgh (3)

vs. Washington (4)

at Chicago White Sox (2)

at Pittsburgh (3)

Key series: How will the Reds fare against the Dodgers at home from September 17-19? It could well be a preview of the Wild Card matchup. Also, if Cincinnati can take care of business in eight remaining games against the division’s bottom feeders (Pittsburgh), they could well punch their ticket to the postseason.

St. Louis Cardinals (18 games left to play)

Games remaining

at New York Mets (1)

vs. San Diego Padres (3)

at Milwaukee (4)

at Chicago Cubs (4)

Milwaukee (3)

Chicago Cubs (3)

Key series: After the Cardinals finish a series in New York against the Mets and an off day, San Diego comes to St. Louis from September 17-19. However, Cardinals still have seven left to play against the division-leading Brewers as well. The finishing schedule is by no means easy.

San Diego Padres (18 games left to play)

Games remaining

at San Francisco (2)

at St. Louis (3)

vs. San Francisco (3)

vs. Atlanta (4)

at L.A. Dodgers (3)

at San Francisco (3)

Key series: Pick any of them honestly, as the Padres have only teams left on their schedule who have postseason plans. We will be especially watching those final 10 games, including seven on the road against division rivals that have already qualified for the postseason.

We talked here about how tough the finishing schedule was for the Padres. According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Padres are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the toughest schedule still to play.

Philadelphia Phillies (18 games left to play)

Games remaining

vs. Chicago Cubs (2)

at New York Mets (3)

vs. Baltimore (3)

vs. Pittsburgh (4)

at Atlanta (3)

at Miami (3)

Key series: The road series against the Mets from September 17-19 could be the death knell in the postseason race for one of those two teams. Hopes for the Phillies are slim, but having seven games against the Pirates and Orioles at home is certainly a reason for hope.

New York Mets (16 games left to play)

Games remaining

vs. St. Louis (1)

vs. Philadelphia (3)

at Boston (2)

at Milwaukee (3)

vs. Miami (4)

at Atlanta (3)

Key series: Every series is key for the Mets to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. However, three in Milwaukee against the Brewers from September 24-26 could well determine just how important the rest of the season will be.