It will likely be a wild finish between the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays to see which of the three teams will earn the two AL Wild Card spots.
Entering play on Thursday, the three teams were each tied in the standings and all eight games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. That means a ticket to the postseason for any of the three clubs is virtually a lock to come through the Wild Card (Tampa Bay has a 98.1 percent chance to win the division, per FanGraphs).
In its data projecting best chances to earn a Wild Card spot, FanGraphs shows Boston with a 72.4 percent chance to punch its ticket for the postseason entering Thursday’s action, while Toronto stands at 62.9 percent and the Yankees follow at 59.7.
This month has shown quite the change in percentages for the three teams, with New York holding an 85.7 percent chance to earn a Wild Card spot on September 4 while Toronto sat at just 10.4 percent. However, the Yankees have posted a 6-8 mark this month while the Blue Jays are 13-2. Boston, meanwhile, has gone 8-6.
So what lies ahead for the three AL East rivals? Let’s look at each of their remaining schedules and key series.
Key games for the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Toronto Blue Jays in the chase for the AL Wild Card berths
Boston Red Sox (14 games remaining)
vs. Baltimore (3)
vs. New York Mets (2)
vs. New York Yankees (3)
at Baltimore (3)
at Washington (3)
Key series: All eyes will be on the Red Sox-Yankees series from September 24-26 at Fenway Park. That, however, is the only series left on Boston’s schedule against a team with any chance of making the postseason, making their finishing schedule, on paper, the easiest of the three teams.
New York Yankees (16 games remaining)
at Baltimore (1)
vs. Cleveland (3)
vs. Texas (3)
at Boston (3)
at Toronto (3)
vs. Tampa Bay (3)
Key series: The weekend series in Boston will be big, but then the Yankees have an off day before heading to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays. Of the three teams battling for the Wild Card, only New York plays both of the other contenders, meaning their postseason fate could well rest in their own hands.
Toronto Blue Jays (16 games remaining)
vs. Minnesota (3)
at Tampa Bay (3)
at Minnesota (4)
vs. New York Yankees (3)
vs. Baltimore (3)
Key series: New York coming across the border from September 28-30 could very well be must-watch baseball, especially with the Yankees having just finished a three-game set in Boston.