MLB Playoffs: Examining the three team AL Wild Card race
The AL East division crown is just about decided, a three horse race for the AL Wild Card provides some major drama.
It’s hard to believe we’re only about three weeks away from the end of the baseball season.
While most divisions aren’t officially decided yet, it’s pretty clear who we’re looking at to claim division championships. When looking at the wild card race, it’s a totally different story.
The AL East was thought to be one of the toughest divisions coming into the 2021 season. Tampa Bay made it to the World Series last year, the Yankees are the Yankees, Toronto is young but solid, Boston could have gone either way and the Orioles were there too.
Fast forward to late September. Tampa is still a World Series threat, and they might be even better than last year. The Yankees have had their moments, but when they’re hot they’re unstoppable. Toronto has impressed with one of the most exciting teams in baseball. Boston has outperformed a lot of expectations, thanks in large part to a great start to the season. And the Orioles have even won a few games themselves.
As a result, we now have four teams fighting for three playoff spots. It’s not official yet, but it seems cut and dry that the Rays are going to walk away with the American League East crown. That means there are three teams going for the two AL Wild Card spots.
Oakland and Seattle lurk in the event that the East teams beat up on each other. At 3.5 and 4 games back respectively, there’s still time for the AL West teams to make up some ground.
It’s kind of surprising to see that the Mariners are still hanging around given that they’ve only even been over .500 three times since 2010 and as recently as 2019 they finished with 94 losses and 34 games back in the division.
Seattle and Oakland face off seven more times in 2021 which means one of two things happens: one team knocks the other out or they finish pretty even and both end up out.
New York Yankees:
The Yankees are one of three AL East teams tied for the two AL wild card spots. Needless to say, divisional games are going to be huge for all three.
All of the Yankees’ final three games are against the division. Before that, the Yankees have to deal with the Indians, who are ten games back in the Wild Card and 3-7 over their last ten. They then host the already eliminated Ranges for a three game set.
The Yankees are winners of three straight, but it’s so hard to predict where this team will go. They’ve been so hot and cold that a surge is just as realistic as a complete collapse. It seems like the story of this team in 2021 has been three steps forward, four steps back. Starting 27-19, the Yankees quickly fell to 33-32 and it’s been much of the same the rest of the way.
The Yankees will need Aaron Judge to play a big role down the stretch. Judge has only four hits over his last 22 at bats, but all four have been home runs. It simply can’t be all or nothing with the Yankees slugger.
Don’t sleep on the postseason experience of Anthony Rizzo, who was a key contributor to one World Series team in 2016. He’s been solid for the Yankees and as a clutch late season performer might be the MVP of the final stretch.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have arguably the most exciting team in baseball. They kind of remind me of the 2015 Chicago Cubs: a team that can sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card but do a little more damage than expected.
The thing about that 2015 Cubs team was that they were still so young. They had a core that was together the following year when that postseason experience of 2015 paid dividends with a World Series ring in 2016.
But we can’t look ahead. It’s all about 2021.
Toronto started even slower than New York at 33-35. Since that point, they’re 49-29 and have been playing some great baseball. They’ve come into their own, led in large part by the young bats.
Five Blue Jays have at least 20 home runs, and Lourdes Guerriel (19) is likely to make it six. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 45 homers, 103 RBI, and is hitting .317 with a .406 OPB.
The big advantage the Jays have is that ten of their final 16 games are against teams already eliminated in the Twins and Orioles, meaning the Jays have very winnable games. Outside of that, Toronto plays three at Tampa, but arguably the biggest series remaining will be a three game set against the Yankees in Toronto.
It’s pretty simple for the red hot Blue Jays: win the games you should and you’re likely an AL wild card.
Boston Red Sox
Boston is pretty much the complete opposite end of the spectrum. They started hot: 54-32 over their first 86 games. But since the All Star break Boston is just 20-23, including 12-18 over their last 30 games.
They’re going to need to be much closer to the early season Red Sox over the next two and a half weeks.
Much like the Jays, Boston has a pretty team friendly path remaining. They play six against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. Boston is clearly superior to both of those teams, so a 7-2 record over those nine is possible. Add in two games against the slumping Mets and the Sox are in business.
And again, like the Jays, the key is a three game weekend series against the Yankees at the end of the month that just happens to take place at Fenway.
Next. Breaking down the schedule for the AL Wild Card contenders. dark
Boston needs the pitching to stay hot during the final stretch. Boston is third in the major in ERA at 2.18 over the last week. Unfortunately, the Sox offense hasn’t been much help, hitting just .218 over that same seven day period. That’s resulted in a 3-3 record that won’t do much good in such an intense race. That’s a change from most of the season, where the Sox are third in the majors in average.