How the St. Louis Cardinals took command of second NL Wild Card spot

On Sunday afternoon, the St. Louis Cardinals not only finished off a sweep of the San Diego Padres inside Busch Stadium, but also likely finished the Padres season as well.

St. Louis has become a bully when it comes to assuming command of its own National League Wild Card destiny. With its eighth straight win on Sunday, St. Louis now sits three games up in the chase for the second NL Wild Card (with either San Francisco or the Los Angeles Dodgers earning the top Wild Card and home field advantage for the one-game playoff on Wednesday, October 6).

It’s been nothing but up for the Cardinals in recent days. On September 7, after dropping a 7-2 home game to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the chances for St. Louis to reach the postseason, according to FanGraphs, stood at just 2.8 percent. Just 12 days later, St. Louis is one of the hottest teams in all of baseball and that percentage of reaching the postseason stands at 72.3 percent after Sunday’s win.

Since that loss to the Dodgers, St. Louis has been on fire. They took the next two games from the Dodgers, then won two of three from Cincinnati. From there, it’s been six straight wins, including a three-game road sweep against the New York Mets and coming home to take three from San Diego. Those last three teams, by the way, are all chasing the same Wild Card spot St. Louis has stamped their name on for the time being.

So what has been the secret to success for the St. Louis Cardinals in their chase for the Wild Card?

Let’s look at three big factors that have pushed St. Louis into strong contention for the postseason.

Pitching

Much of the September rise in the standings falls on the success St. Louis has been found on the mound since that Dodgers loss. In a 10-game stretch from September 8-18, St. Louis pitchers posted a cumulative 2.35 ERA while opponents hit just .223 against them.

St. Louis has also found a way to close games, something that haunted them earlier in the season in painful walkoff losses against National League Central rivals Pittsburgh and Milwaukee.

The St. Louis Cardinals seem to have figured out their late-inning issues

Since the start of September, Giovanny Gallegos has converted on 6-of-7 save opportunities. In his last seven outings, he has six saves and has allowed two hits and struck out 11 in 6.2 innings of work.

And let’s not forget what starting pitcher Adam Wainwright is doing at the age of 40. He has a 1.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his last seven starts where he has struck out 32 while walking just nine.

Since the All-Star break, Wainwright is 9-2 with a 2.08 ERA in 13 starts.

Nolan Being Nolan

When the St. Louis Cardinals acquired Nolan Arenado in a trade with the Colorado Rockies in the offseason, there were plenty of questions about how Arenado’s numbers would fare away from the spacious outfield at Coors Field. While some metrics such as batting average may be down for Arenado compared to previous years (.293 during his eight seasons in Colorado versus .253 this season in St. Louis), there is no question Arenado is still producing at an All-Star level.

Nolan Arenado is raking for the St. Louis Cardinals

Arenado went 2-for-4 in Sunday’s win over San Diego, keeping him at 99 RBI for the season. That paces the Cardinals and puts him in reach of 100, which will give him six consecutive seasons with 30 or more home runs and 100 or more RBI (excluding last year’s pandemic-shortened season). No other Major League player can boast those numbers (J.D. Martinez has four and four others have three).

That next RBI will also make Arenado the first Cardinal with 100 RBI since Matt Holliday (102 in 2012) and the first Cardinals third baseman since Scott Rolen (124 in 2004).

And, of course, Arenado is still making incredible plays in the field as well.

The most home runs that Arenado has hit in a month this season was seven back in May. He already has six in September, giving the Cardinals a power surge when they have needed it most.