The Milwaukee Brewers are in the process of violating a basic dictum of athletics. Any time you have a chance to put a rival away, do it…or risk living to regret it.
The Brewers Thursday lost a fourth straight game to the St. Louis Cardinals. The series began Monday in Milwaukee with the Brewers securely staked to a playoff spot as all-but-formal champions of the NL Central.
Milwaukee Brewers helped give St. Louis Cardinals life
The Cardinals began that same night as shaky holders of the National League’s second wild card position, thanks in large measure to a winning streak which at that moment had reached eight games.
Four games later, the Cardinals have completed a decisive sweep of the Brewers, including 10-2 and 8-5 victories Wednesday and Thursday. The outcomes do not jeopardize Milwaukee’s hold on the division championship – they still lead the Central by seven games with 11 days to go.
But they substantially improve the chances of the Cardinals’ reaching post-season. Riding what is now a 12-game streak, St. Louis now leads the Phillies by four games for the second wild card.
The Brewers still have three more games next week in St. Louis, so their window to slow the Cardinals’ run toward post-season is not yet exhausted.
But this week’s series represented the Brewers’ big chance to eliminate one potential post-season contender. They not only failed to do so, they jet-fueled that contender’s run toward post-season.
It is axiomatic in athletics, and certainly in baseball, that when a post-season team has a chance to bury a rival post-season hopeful, it needs to do so. Allowing that team to hang around enables it to build both momentum and confidence, and to do so at the worst possible time.
Post-season baseball is rife with examples of locked-in post-season teams that failed to eliminate fellow contenders when they could have, and lived to regret it. As recently as 2018, the Chicago Cubs, cruising in the NL Central, lost four of six to the wild card hopeful Brewers. Those outcomes enabled the Brewers to catch the Cubs on the season’s final day and beat them in a division playoff.
One day later, the Colorado Rockies eliminated the Cubs from the post-season picture entirely, defeating them in a wild card game the Cubs never thought they’d have to play.
In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals took five of six late-season games from the Brewers, who again were cruising to the division title. Those wins enabled the Cardinals to finish one game ahead of Atlanta for the NL wild card.
The Brewers lived to regret not taking out the Cardinals when they had the chance. In the NLCS, St. Louis defeated Milwaukee four games to two; one week later the Cardinals beat Texas in seven games to win the World Series.
The pairings this season are likely to put some post-season space between the Brewers and Cards. As the second wild card, St. Louis’ first challenge will be to get past the first wild card holder, either the Giants or Dodgers. They’d then have to take out the other as NL West champion.
Barring a dramatic reversal, the Brewers are all but certain to play the NL East winner, either the Braves or Phillies.
That means the Brewers and Cardinals could only meet at the NLCS.
There’s a lot to be done between now and the NLCS. But one thing is certain: The Milwaukee Brewers had a major opportunity to virtually eliminate one of their potential post-season challengers this week. They failed to do so.
They may live to regret that failure.